OrdIowPitMsp

It’s been so long I’d forgotten the simple joy of hearing rainfall on the roof. 1.30” overnight

Looks like the rain shield associated with the vort max slid just NW of you. Ouch. Feels like Mother Nature is trolling me, higher probabilities of heavy rain all around but a wedge of 10% right through the metro.

Colors are definitely off to an early start this year.

With the days quickly shortening I thought it was time to post an update on where we stand with the 3rd consecutive summer of flash drought in Minneapolis. The epic winter of 22/23 has blunted the YTD impact compared to last year. April 2023: 2.39” (-0.52” Ave 2.91”) May 2023: 1.62” (-2.29” Ave 3.91”) June 2023: 0.93” (-3.65” Ave 4.58”) July 2023: 2.57” (-1.49” Ave 4.05”) August 2023: 2.29” (-2.05” Ave 4.34”) September 2023: (Through 9/20) 0.64” (-1.35” Ave 1.99”) YTD: 17.79” (-7.44” Ave 25.23”)

Models were teasing with a 1-2”+ rainfall event this weekend but they’ve pulled back and it’s looking more like a 0.25-0.50” event. There are a few sandbar islands appearing on the Mississippi in town.

Yeah I absolutely love the 4 very distinct seasons the Midwest enjoys where weather changes every 90 days or so. Bismarck ND and the plains are way more extreme, they can be 100+ for a week and -10 for a week.

Minneapolis ftw! Most days above 90 and most days below 0 in the subforum. Best Climo

Picture perfect weather this weekend. High around 70 and beginning to get that fall “crisp” feel to the air. Was outside with the family from around 9am til 5pm today. Little guy is all tuckered out early today.

0.30” of morning commute rainfall with the cold front.

Up the shore from @Brian DDefinitely a couple weeks early this year.

Overnight low of 45, coldest temperature in Minneapolis since May 20. Patchy frost outside the UHI

Frost advisories for northern Minnesota. There will be patchy frost outside the metro area tonight as well. Warms up quick late week though.

Counting my lucky stars. A small storm dropped 0.22” imby overnight.

Only mustered 0.06” here over the weekend. That’s also our rainfall total since August 14. Bone dry is an understatement

Typical early autumn weather today. Scattered showers and mild temps. Won’t amount to much at all, maybe 0.25” but a nice change of pace to see something falling from the sky.

The lake by our house was steaming this morning. Car thermometer read 48 when I pulled into work.

We managed a high of 64 today in Minneapolis. Quite the change from Monday.

Mississippi River north of the twin cities is near record lows. Currently below the low water threshold.

Just a couple sprinkles here. Basically will be 30+ days without any precipitation. Beginning to see more trees starting to accelerate the leaf drop. Quite the airmass change. Went from peak summer to mid fall overnight.

Minneapolis was able to escape triple digit heat this year. Topping out at 99 today. Brainerd clocking a 102 well north of the twin cities and the start of cabin country was eye catching. Very steamy morning today on Michigan Ave, dews were running about 10 degrees higher then Minneapolis when we left the hotel. Great views from floor 39.

I think we break 100 on Sunday. The relatively dry airmass should help temperatures overachieve compared to the last heatwave. Lucky me, I’ll be in Chicago this weekend for a wedding and miss the misery.

Neighbors mature white oak tree has succumbed to a suspected case of “Twolined Chestnut Borer” No doubt that 3 summers of drought caused the mortality. I’ll post detailed stats this weekend but J/J/A will finish with 5.79” of precipitation, against an average of 12.86” which is only 45% of normal.

GFS showed 105-115 for Minneapolis during the last heatwave. We never made it above 98. I do think we have a better chance of breaking 100 this time around with much lower dews.

Why do you post the GFS, it’s proven over and over again to have a 5-10 degree warm bias. Heat does look to stick around for the first half of September.

A winter like that would probably translate to 40s/50s through Memorial Day.