OrdIowPitMsp

5 hours ago, roardog said:

Didn’t ‘13-‘14 actually end up colder than ‘76-‘77 in areas like northern Minnesota?

Not going to go digging up stats right now, but here in Minneapolis we rivaled any winter in the modern record on days below zero in 13-14’

Miss south by about 500 miles. 

I’m skiing 3 days a week, working full time with two kids. No complaints here 

24+ hours of dense fog. Freezing fog at night. Last day above freezing for awhile today. Cold and dry. Frost depths are going to be impressive if we don’t get some insulating snowcover. 

Rain this morning is eating away at the snowpack. We’ll have brown ground by tomorrow. 0.50” of precipitation expected. All liquid…

73 and sunny in the Coachella Valley.
 

Minneapolis reported a 3” snow-depth this morning. Gloomy and grey there for the remainder of 2024. 

Off on our annual snowbird sojourn to the Coachella Valley to visit my parents. Mom isn’t doing so well, (Dementia) so trying to give her as much grandkids time as we can while we can. Picked a good week to go this year, lots of zzzzz weather in the upper Midwest. Coming back the 28th, hopefully right before a pattern shakeup. 

Low of 0 this morning in Minneapolis.
 

Was hopeful for our 4th below zero low of the season, but this is still colder then guidance had us. 

8 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Obviously not everybody feels the same way but I'm willing to go 5-10 winters (we essentially have the past 5) of nothing if I can experience a 24+ hecs.

I was in Manhattan for the January 22-24th 2016 HECS. 27.5” in Central Park and 30.5” at JFK. It was absolutely bonkers but of course started melting immediately. 

1995/1996 is an all timer winter in Minnesota. Crazy to see how shafted Detroit was that year, had no idea. 

MSP ended up with 5.5” of snowfall yesterday on 0.23” of liquid. I believe that’s a ratio of 20-1

@michsnowfreakI pulled some text from forecast discussions late last week. The Canadian really nailed this storm. 

Friday 12/13/24 1:35pm 

Looking ahead, unless we see
the boom scenario for snow tomorrow, it is looking more like a
brown Christmas this year as additional opportunities for snow
look grim.

Then there is this nugget from Saturday 12/14/2024

The most
likely scenario right now is that we see a clipper go to our north,
with the heaviest snow up along the international border. For us,
it`s looking like we get into a clipper warm sector, which may allow
for a quick warmup and even thaw for Thursday before we see another
modified arctic airmass and below normal temperatures for next
weekend. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is a good reminder for the young winter. Even now cast models can be off by 50+ miles, to say nothing of so.ething 3, 5, 7 days out.

Models had this as a northern Minnesota event 5-7 days ago. Forecast discussions last week were doom and gloom about white Christmas chances. Now it’s pretty much a lock MSP has 1” on the ground at 6am on 12/25

Heaviest totals are going to end up 50-75 miles south of where it was modeled. Snow is just about done in the metro but it’s rocking in southern Minnesota. 

MSP reporting 5” at the noon update. Should tack on another 1-2” this afternoon. 

6” reports starting to flow in south of the metro. That area is in line for more moderate snow in the coming hours. Might be a zone of 8-10” when all is said and done. 

Fairbault to Rochester up to the southern suburbs might be the jackpot zone. I’m eyeballing around 4”, there’s a 5.2” report in Richfield. 
 

Expecting a lull late morning until the wrap around bands come through this afternoon. 

10 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

Looks like this thing came in well south of where the models showed it would. Wonder where the bullseye ends up now.


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Yeah the WSW was expanded south, seems to be the trend this winter.

Airport reported 1.6” at 6am. 

19F, 1/2mi visibility and moderate to heavy snow.

Looking really good out there this morning. MPX bumped the metro up to 5-7”

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

GRR: "No headlines at this time" (said in a soup nazi "no snow for you" tone)

Maybe your office was waiting to see the whites of it's eyes as well?

APX: "meh, it's just not the same as 2 feet of LES" nothing to see here..

No headlines, but we do get maps:

Do the Michigan WFOs play a game of chicken to see who will issue a WWA first?

3 hours ago, mnchaserguy said:

I went from nothing to Winter Storm Warning. Just gotta hope that dry slot doesn’t screw me over tomorrow. 10-20 miles could make a big difference in what I get vs what @Ordlowpitmsp gets tomorrow.


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Pretty odd. Not sure I’ve ever seen us go from nothing to a winter storm warning before, but I’ll certainly take it. I’d feel a bit better being by you in the north metro. Anoka county should be in a prime spot. I haven’t had a ton of time to look at the high res models today but the city should be good for at least 4”+ 

8 hours ago, mnchaserguy said:

Clipper systems are annoyingly finicky. Looks like we’ll miss out on the snow today in Minneapolis. Still on track to get a decent amount from a more potent clipper on Thursday.


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We got dusted in south Minneapolis. Probably 0.1-0.2, wasn’t expecting it tbh. 

Lock it in. If you want snow, head north my friends.

4 hours ago, mnchaserguy said:

Looks like a couple of chances for snow here in Minneapolis this week. An inch or two tomorrow night then a bigger clipper system on Thursday. Still a bit of spread in the models for both systems but either way we should pick up some snow this week.


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Tomorrow looks like a nice cosmic coating, but Thursday has my attention. I’m selfishly worried about the metro being a county or two south of the main action but we could easily score 3-6” out of that one. 
 

Since 2000, Minneapolis has 69% odds of a white Christmas. That drops to 60% the last 10 years. Thursdays system will probably determine it this year. 

Manager only 0.05” of precipitation yesterday. Mostly sleet with some freezing rain. 
 

Freezing fog has everything extra slick this morning.