BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary had an interesting map plotted showing years that the Indian Ocean dipole was above average during non-nino years. 1961-62 (15" @DCA), 1983-84 (8.6" @dca) and 2012-2013 (disaster winter). Fwiw, each of those winters had at least a trace in November. I have an extremely cautious view going into this winter.

Who would have guessed a day 7 snow threat would become a rain threat the next day?

That is exactly what my analogs focused on (cool east Pac and warmer west-central Pac). I also expect a warm December.

I think November can be just as important (if not more) relative to the rest of winter. Could you run those numbers when you get a chance?

If the polar vortex gets dislodged by the end of October, which some models are hinting at, then the relaxation in December similar to last year is more likely imo. We are way too early to want a pv!

It wasn't mini.

Perspecta Weather's winter outlook includes all three of my analogs! https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2019/10/14/800-am-2019-2020-winter-outlook-by-perspecta-weather?fbclid=IwAR13Rxrc-fcKctrDYjW9Vn-sN6p2tUPG08K_ilYBtCUM4KXIY5GX1155IDY

I'm glad to see the 2004-2005 analog that lines up with my blog last week!

From Don S. It is typically a signal of a warmer winter. Since 1980, the following has occurred in New York City when both October and November were warmer than normal: Succeeding winter: Colder than normal: 3/13 (23%) cases Near normal: 1/13 (8%) cases Warmer than normal: 9/13 (69%) cases Breakdown of months: December: Colder than normal: 4/13 (31%) months Warmer than normal: 9/13 (69%) months January: Colder than normal: 2/13 (15%) months Warmer than normal: 11/13 (85%) months February: Colder than normal: 2/13 (15%) months Warmer than normal: 11/13 (85%) months December-February: Colder than normal months: 8/39 (21%) months Warmer than normal months: 31/39 (79%) months The snowfall signal was mixed. Mean: 24.2" Median: 24.9" Lowest: 3.5", 2001-02 Highest: 61.9", 2010-11 Who cares about NYC? lol

Ssts over the equatorial Pacific were my baseline with a general weakly cool east tropical Pacific and warmer from west to central Pacific basin leading into the cold season (where we are now). I agree the sample size is an issue, but I couldn't find any other years that showed such a tropical look along with the moderate warm blob look.

That was a decade ago.

As James Spann says, the higher the IQ, the lower the technological skills.

Am I allowed to share my own blog analyses here? I'll relocate it if not. What analogs do you all see? https://btrwxweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/btrwxs-2019-2020-winter-outlook-analyses.html?fbclid=IwAR2zqRcrr3mcWVGA39NpP-u6lWxRbeiPg46D0xrY4848VXaSpmuszHBsaIs

None of those are analogs for Bastardi this year...

Jesus, I don't even care.

I think the chart was poorly done. If I (weather geek) can't understand it, the average user won't.

It specifically says "record" throughout the chart. DT just printed it wrong.

That's not what the graphic shows.

How in the world does DT think the Mid Atlantic has a 37% chance of a record cold and snow winter?! Lmao

That seems much more plausible!

This is so sad! NCEP's director drowned! https://wtkr.com/2019/10/02/noaa-official-drowns-after-possibly-being-caught-in-rip-current-off-north-carolina-coast/

Those winters weren't pretty.

Nor'easter watches aren't far off even if they're all liquid.

As much as I love Joe Bastardi's work, he just doesn't seem to understand Mid-Atlantic climo. https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast

Um, that's last year!