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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

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  1. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    The euro has rain showers.
  2. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Also, that scenario would be rain.
  3. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    That might just be me.
  4. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Don't nwp verification scores tend to suffer when we have a neutral ENSO?
  5. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    December is doomed and nobody should be surprised. eta: 2014 was similar and was back-loaded with snow at the end of the season
  6. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Considering how fast the ensembles have been shifting...
  7. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    How warm are we headed?
  8. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I think it's relevant here. Don't all operational models use the prior runs in some way or another?
  9. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Judah Cohen's talk should be interesting!
  10. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    How has the eps snowfall/icing looked over recent runs? I was quite surprised that LWX went with code yellow for western counties.
  11. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    BWI: 18" DCA: 14" IAD: 20" RIC: 10" Tiebreaker SBY: 8"
  12. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    What I experienced was no joke. I never even knew I had it at the time of my bs. My goal is to never deal with it ever again even if I now technically have the disability.
  13. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Radarscope shows mixing just nw of D.C. eta: That didn't last long.
  14. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I question your met tag now.
  15. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    If only the Redskins had decided to keep Cousins.
  16. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I just don't see why people seem excited about the long-term pattern. I see no -NAO from eps means. I think this winter will be a late bloomer.
  17. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I think the opposite happens more often, but that might be for enso years specifically.
  18. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Flurries!
  19. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    lucky!
  20. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I came here just to find out! Congrats on your first flakes!
  21. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    The one big reason I want to discount 1961-62 is the nina leading into that winter was notable.
  22. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    You should include the airport averages in the original post.
  23. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary had an interesting map plotted showing years that the Indian Ocean dipole was above average during non-nino years. 1961-62 (15" @DCA), 1983-84 (8.6" @dca) and 2012-2013 (disaster winter). Fwiw, each of those winters had at least a trace in November. I have an extremely cautious view going into this winter.
  24. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Who would have guessed a day 7 snow threat would become a rain threat the next day?
  25. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    That is exactly what my analogs focused on (cool east Pac and warmer west-central Pac). I also expect a warm December.
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