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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

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  1. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    What's the plan for the 3k NAM?
  2. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Everyone who knows how. lol
  3. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    The early precipitation falling overnight helps.
  4. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Bastardi was right all along.
  5. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Beautiful
  6. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    You're so late.
  7. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    They're not wrong.
  8. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Who is that?
  9. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Look how far north the 540 is!
  10. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    He was just mentioning how the model is being replaced.
  11. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
  12. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I did notice a nice high placement on the euro even though the system was slightly to the south.
  13. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    There's not a lot of time for the system to come much farther north. We're within 48 hours! Losing it south is the biggest concern.
  14. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Calling PSU! If this continues into tomorrow, let's get that zoom call scheduled!
  15. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    That's a big run coming up!
  16. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    That's la nina for ya!
  17. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
  18. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    We're saved!
  19. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Even though ssta's to me look like 2011, one major difference is the MJO that December was closer to phase 5. Right now we're close to 7. If blocking develops as modeled down the stretch, then we could luck out. I also remember Bob Chill saying -NAO during the Fall is a good sign for NAO in winter. I'm still skeptical, but more uncertain.
  20. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    That's not always the case. It's just some years the models are more chaotic.
  21. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    It's kind of strange how the MJO is being modeled to race toward the null circle and then back out.
  22. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    This comment might ruin the positive vibes about the long range, but I'm only going to mention my opinion here once. I'm skeptical that the MJO will cycle into phase 8, because the ensembles don't show much consistency. Back to lurking.
  23. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    The basics are pretty simple if you use these two references and match the variable to the phase from the ensembles. Temperature: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Precip: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/
  24. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
  25. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I have to be honest, I haven't looked at a single gfs run in quite some time. Focusing on just the euro reduces false hope.
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