kvegas-wx

Anyone having that gut feeling that Lucy already pulled the football and we just haven't lined up for the kick yet? Trust your gut. We've all seen this game before and there is no reason not to assume the same outcome here until we are proven wrong. (this will also be my approach with the Bengals playoff game Saturday.....31 years of disappointment.....prove me wrong) The writing is on the wall folks. When you see that much WAA hammering into the SE portion of the state there's a valid reason it showed up. And if history is a good indicator, that's a trend that usually ends up with 25% of the forecasted snow total across much of CNC immediately followed by an hour of sleet and the rest of the day filled with freezing drizzle. And we haven't even started talking dry slot yet. Prove me wrong.

Yep, depending upon the final track your lil tidbit could end up being the nail in the coffin for most everyone outside WNC and a nasty ice storm for plenty of us. Pass!

Easy. That was a nice little surprise event, 48 hours out, where we always seem to do well with surprise events. Everyone gets a couple inches and we move on. These Big Dogs pan out once every 20 Burger Booms (no offense to Burger of course). The amount of atmospheric alignment it takes to get everyone across the region even a 4" snow is nearly unachievable it seems. We are playing 8D chess with weather models ( are there 8 dimensions in weather? when all we really want is a good dose of cold and a few hours of rain. So yeah, I'm a little pessimistic on the Big Dogs.

LOL - wait until tomorrow and the Winston folks will be like "I'll take my hour of snow followed by a rapid change to IP". Guess I can put the sled back now. I feel like the jinx is already underway.

That's disgusting. (slides the model run back between the mattresses) Time to haul out the sleds and jinx the whole dang thing.

Here comes the slush and cutting snow totals by 80%. I'll give it until midnight before everyone south of Lexington is screaming about the warm nose.

I mean it would certainly be a win to see that low a little deeper, maybe Cat 4-5 ish, to make up for that crappy (actually awesome, wink wink) December we just had. I'll take my 23" of powder for my birthday as it stands now, but 40" is better!

No kidding. I had already downgraded my expectations in Stuart from "up to 1 inch" to just some light snow, but the radar has just fizzled completely. I expect my WWA will also go "poof" here shortly.

WWA out for Patrick Cty tonight for up to 4" but as always, this county is impossible to forecast. Nearly nothing will fall here south of Stuart tonight and the elevated part of the county NW of Primland and Meadows of Dan will probably see 2-4". I'm sure there are several counties up and down the apps like this, Wilkes also comes to mind, where it is nearly impossible to issue a blanket forecast due to terrain variability. Anyway, still rocking a balmy 50 degrees here in the foothills. Not feeling this one at all.

Still dumping snow in Stuart VA. Very unexpected win with the accums. Approaching a half inch in grassy areas.

Hammering here is Stuart VA. 20 mins in and everything is covered. Simply amazing. Aside from having the sun move a few million miles closer to earth, I will never question ground temps vs rates again, ever.

15 minutes in Stuart, everything is covered. Way, way, way overperformed anything I thought I would see today. Impressive!

POURING SNOW in Stuart. Much to my major surprise, the ground caved almost instantly. I will have accums in 15 minutes at this rate!

Snowing now in Stuart, VA. Big fat flakes!!

VA. About 8 miles across the state line north of Winston. 1500' elevation.

Down to 33° at 7am here in Stuart. Changeover should be this hour. Would love to see a snow squall but not expecting any accums. Everything is absolutely drenched!

Relocated to the farm in Patrick Cty about 5 miles across the border. 1500' elevation. Its all I got. Models implying 2-4 across the county so the cams will be rolling. 55° and dead calm, patchy heavy fog too. Just like my Bengals today, lets get this win baby!!

Snow breaking out deep into MS and eastern AR. Verification looking pretty good.....so far.

Looking at the 6-7" wedge from Patrick County down into Stokes thinking that this is the early season event that will crush our enthusiasm and remind us all how poorly the weather models have performed over the last couple of years with these marginal events. I'll be driving up to the farm in Stuart tonight and back home to Kvegas tomorrow at lunch. I will be living proof of model verification within 20 hours.

Now approaching 80° in the Triad on January 1st. Oh how this rubber band is going to snap back. At this rate March could be the new dead of winter around here!

I hope the ski resort owners also own a few golf courses. What a stunning pattern!

This is impressive for sure. Not a day or two in the heat, but the consistency and durability of the warmth almost nationwide. We've had warm Dec days here and there. But this is a full on trend. It does make you wonder....where on earth are they having consistently below avg temps and how deep in the cold are we gonna be when the rubberband finally snaps back. Fab Feb could be really interesting this year.

C'mon now, we all know winter doesnt arrive in the SE forum until Feb 29th. It will be here in due time.

Three years ago today I was knee deep in snow drifts in the Triad.

For those that subscribe to the Joe Bastardi "snapback" theories (assuming they originated with him) this could have all the makings of one heckuva Jan/Feb. We are tremendously short on precip and cold air. If we cut the deficit on both at the same time, well, you know...... Patterns change, and the GFS ain't spittin the truth, I'm just sayin'....