kvegas-wx
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Everything posted by kvegas-wx
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Watching CLT piss away all this QPF just trying to drop 5 degrees has me worried for the Triad. If we get to 1am and all I see are posts about mixing, virga and nothing yet, the majority of this board is going to start having flashbacks. Its never easy here......ever. I do feel bad for those in SC and GA that invested heavily and are coming up empty. You need another surprise 6" snow in downtown ATL!
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Precip is smashing into a brick wall across TN and NC. Any thoughts on whether or not this may end up being our initial SN/IP battle line until later tomorrow as the warm nose starts to creep in? If so, that puts CLT squarely in the ice zone and the rest of the central and NW piedmont all snow for quite a while.
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So the heavy precip looks to be nearly finished by tomorrow night. Which feature are we looking at to extend this into Monday? Originally I thought it was just a slow system riding up the coast. But after seeing a couple models kick this quickly OTS over night, is there a second low swinging thru? I saw a mention of a double barrel low thru my weary eyes overnight.
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I really think the wx offices are gonna need to accelerate their WSWs. RAH has a 1am Sunday morning start for the Triad. Seems much much quicker than that on radar. I'd bet we see winter conditions spread across the area by 6pm tomorrow. GFS hinted at it, radar certainly shows it, maybe it nailed the OTS quicker solution!?
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Be careful, you cant say weenie in here anymore. And you definitely cant draw it into a weather map!
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as in almost 12 hours of precip compared to timing on globals, no?
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Then Grit better deliver the BOOM!!
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There goes my flight out of GSO-CLT Tuesday morning. Time to rebook tomorrow. Anybody posting a PBP on the Euro tonight? Kinda quiet in here right now.
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Burger showing up for a PBP tonight?
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Huh?? Lucy got some splainin' to do. Image?
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I predict this storm may just bust a nut all over southern wake county. Should be ample coverage for those folks.
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I was so trying to avoid this place. It feels kinda ookie in here. Like a bunch of people in VA had nightmares about suppression and collectively sweat the bed. I need a shower.....
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Absolutely fascinating and quite honestly, I learned something valuable. Made the last 5 days of sleep deprivation and storm prep all worth it! Belated thanks Isohume!
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Ouch. NAM says I can use a shovel instead of a blower after all. About a third of the FV3 total!
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Beat me to it. And you read them a lot more than I do. But I cant see sleet in that??
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I keep seeing this model tossed into the discussion. I think it has been around since the mid 90's but is it still considered experimental? Is it private B2B subscription model? Just wondering with over 20 years of data and tweaking, who is actually using it?
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If the storm plays out as modeled I think we'll all be surprised, yet happy. But if things take a dramatic turn, the post mortem on this one is going to be an incredible read.
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Welcome! Yep. INT is winston salem. RDU is raleigh. CLT is Charlotte.
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Thanks CAD. May your user name be the talk of the town this weekend!
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As models like the RGEM and HRRR enter the discussion this weekend, we should have models to look at every couple hours or so tomorrow and Saturday. Does anyone have an old post, or maybe a current summary available that lists the model run times for all models?
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Oh yeah, we're so gonna crush those grounds temps, and quickly! So remove ground temps from your winter storm reasons for failure checklist. It's gonna accumulate no problem.
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Knowing the ground wont get any warmer over the next couple of days, anyone have a hotlink to a soil temp map? We're certainly not frozen, but we arent in the upper 40s either. Rates will easily overcome current conditions. (Crystal clear tonight in the triad. Cold already!)
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Sunday start for the potential heavy stuff. Should be fine in Ral for saturday night as it stands now.
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Maybe a 3 way call with proper introductions? Do these guys even know each other? Maybe an annual holiday party or something? Good grief!
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The HP is weaker and north, the LP is north by quite a bit too. Eagerly awaiting another EURO run now. I feel as if the lug nuts are getting loose.
