kvegas-wx

I wouldnt be cashing any checks quite yet. If we end up with a quick flip to arctic circle-like conditions for a couple weeks (supression city storm track) it could flip right back to warm and wet just as fast. We could be sitting here shivering under crystal blue skies on Feb 1st looking at indices calling for an early March warmup. Timing of systems during those transitions are likely our best bet. I mean really, how often to we get sustained blocking anymore?

Yeah, I'm just yanking Bob's chain, but I wonder if this is a case of extremes to the point that the models simply go wonky not knowing how to handle it? I've never seen anything like those runs yesterday in my 15 years of hobbying.

@Bob Chill, paging Bob Chill, you have been invited to play a round of golf in February down in the Triad. Please delete your aforementioned historic cold posts, grab those clubs and head on down. I hear there may also be some great mullet fishing as well. Lol!!

Nope. Not until the forecast includes a flash freeze and.....wolves! Yes, real live wolves running around the triad. But I agree, it kinda looks chilly.

Balmy compared to the 1981 Freezer Bowl! Heck, my chili might even stay warm on my hotdogs at -44°. :-) I'd sit through that game again!

I'm saving this post Bob. Won't hold it against you when I am sowing grass and playing golf in late Feb. Hope you are right!

Not the right thread, sorry, but full on snowing here at the farm in stuart! Get ready @Buddy1987!

Vodka served on dry ice! Surely anything making it down to the gulf would stay surpressed in this scenario. But with the right timing we can catch LPs riding underneath the retreating PV. We just dont get snow here when it is that cold.

Ok, yeah right. -15° for a HIGH temp all the way down to Lexington KY would be beyond historic. Now I did sit thru the 1981 AFC Championship Game in Cincy where we were below zero at game time with a -59° wind chill. So I guess anything is possible. But if there is any model consensus to support the GFS, even this far out, the public alarms need to be sounded. You are talking about life threatening cold for over half the nation! (For days!!)

Even sooner than that, my point and click forecast on the night of the 21st shows MINUS 7 °??? Snow next Sunday and Monday?? Highs in the 20s!! I'm thinking that has to be some bad data.

4-5 days out. Time for @OrangeburgWX to see if he can go 2-2 with storm threads this season. Reel it in!

You guys lettin' me down! Someone promised me 72° and sunny until June the other day. Until I see the FV3 starts honking ice I'm not on board for the NW piedmont and triad. The low level cold already in place by end of week is certainly enough reason to be concerned, but there is little reinforcement for it. No snow pack really anywhere to the north and no new cold shot during the LP passage. Am I missing something? Otherwise that CAD signal should erode quickly, right?

Man thats what I tried to say after the last storm and got raked for it. I sooo agree. But you should prepare for the flaming arrows if history is consistent.

You got me excited! 72° and sunny until July, right? Bring.It.On!!

I'll deal with the mud. Either way, the dogs will tear up sod or seed this time of year. I was just hoping to fence them off for a couple weeks and fill in the bad spots. Everyone here knows darn good and well we will be begging for rain next June/July to keep all that new fescue alive. Extremes, just the way we roll here in the sunny south.

Ok green thumbs, I desparately need to sow some grass asap. I know I could fast grow some rye, but I really would love to sow some fescue as wet as it is. Assuming we have 50s and 30s for the next couple of weeks with some rain mixed in, would it grow? Never tried it before this time of year and dont want to waste the 30 bucks on a small bag.

I'm content. If anything, I'll take the warm temps for now if it results in a drier pattern. It is simply too damn wet. We have sugar ants in the house at the end of December! And like Poimen, I am seriously considering tossing out some fescue. Looks like a bookend winter. 14" in December, who knows what Fab Feb and Miracle March might bring. Folks need to calm down a bit. We still have a solid 75 days of potential to go even after the next couple of weeks.

Patience....so far this winter mother nature is making it look easy. I just had 14" of snow for Frosty's sake!

Lol. Thanks for your support...,uh, will kinda....,ok, maybe not. I could argue that if this storm was all we get this winter that by February all of you will be crying about it. So whats wrong with wanting several 4" events? Save the big stuff for the mountains and lets make everyone else in the forum happy. All you have to do is look at the 4' high piles of snow in my yard to realize I would have happily shared half of that with my fellow Wolfpackers in Raleigh. (ABC and Dukies go home) I understand the excitement of the big dog. But that big dog leaves a huge mess around the house after the storm too.

If the FV3 can nail two storms, one from 10 days out and the other from 15 days out, then scrap the rest of the models. We have the one we need for winter forecasts. Slightly off topic, how did the FV3 do earlier this year with severe storm setups, hurricanes, etc?

I get it. And I had my day when I wanted it. But when I had to plow up 4' high walls of it 100 yards long yesterday it quickly becomes more trouble than its worth. I LOVE snow. But I think 4" events cover everything from a sledder to the enthusiasts.

I want everyone here to get their snow so dont take this the wrong way, but I never want to see over a foot of snow again. I think 4" is about right. Coat everything, cover the grass, you can walk in it, drive in it, shovel it fairly easily, businesses stay open and it melts quick. The order of magnitude increase in complexity of everything with the limited snow removal resources here in the south is unreal. The ideal winter for me going forward is 3-4 4" inch events with one of them being Christmas morning. A foot is cool if you dont actually have to function for 3-4 days.

I hear ya and share your concern. Power already flickered once tonight. The only positive to the wind was that most of the snow weight blew out of the trees earlier today. If we get a couple tenths of ZR that wind will quickly work against us. Light ZR here in Kvegas / Walkertown.

As impressed as I have been thus far, this would really take the cake. For those out east that got blanked today to walk away with 2-4" tomorrow would be incredible. Any other HiRes models on board with this much additional? I think I saw the HRRR may be bullish over in the Obs thread.

Yep. I'm just sayin' expectations are high and memories are still a bit raw. Seeing some early flurries in the Triad now so maybe things are about ready to fulfill the multiple Burger Booms we saw this week.