kvegas-wx
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Everything posted by kvegas-wx
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I understand the thinking but disagree with the word "large". The runoff and flooding would be devastating. What would be better is a 2-3 back to back small tropical waves that dump a couple inches each over weeks, not days. My yard here in the triad is concrete. You throw 4-8" of rain on top of that and everything runs off. We need slow and steady.
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
kvegas-wx replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
That looks like a brownout to me. A quick yellowing, then death. No way these trees stand a chance of much color this year. My yard is already full of dead leaves here in the Triad. -
Just saw that myself regarding the cool down potential for the first week in Oct. But cooling is only half the battle. If we lose our growing season for lawn and garden, I pray we don't have a wet winter because everything I own will be mud by February. Need....rain...now.
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Was this predicted in any models 60-90 days ago in long range outlooks?
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It is 32° this morning, with FROST, in Aspen CO and fortunately I am here to witness it. What a glorious morning!
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I needed a break in the action and fortunately had to travel to Aspen CO this weekend. The weather is stunning!! 60s and 30s, beautiful days. And we had snow flurries from a passing cloud yesterday at 12,000 feet going over Independence Pass. I'll do whatever dance, ritual or sacrifice to the memory of John Denver that I need to do to bring this weather home with me to the Southeast.
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What is stunning to me about the charts above is that we ended up with 2018 being a near record Sept for heat....while we were having record annual rainfall amounts during a fall when we couldnt find a dry weekend anywhere and begging for it to stop raining. That to me is even more impressive than this year.
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Until Jerry or one of his Caribbean cousins shows up and wrecks the party with 100% humidity and 85° temps well into Oct. We are not going to get off the hook easy this year.
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Look to the upper midwest at 6-7 days out and see if its really there. Then all we need to worry about is breaking down the ridge. I fear we are already seeing some familiar battle lines drawn.
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And that may be the only moisture your lawn sees as well unless the tropics come through for us. I didnt get a drop from Dorian in the Triad.
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If we lock in the SER again and sweat through October I think at least 70% of this board will need some sort of mental therapy. The long range models are just not good at predicting pattern changes.....ever. #trustbroken
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There are benefits.....it is much easier to kill my lawn for reseeding when it is bone dry. And I was able to open up a mile or so of atv trails yesterday on the tractor without sliding around in mud. Beyond that, this is miserable! I just hate to rely on a tropical system to break the pattern because we all know how bad the inland flooding can be across the hill country.
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I know there are plenty of folks suffering, but for what its worth, the "good" parts of this storm are being felt well inland in the Triad. Partly sunny with an awesome steady breeze. This is roughly the same weather we get here every time a storm runs up the coast. Just a beautiful early fall day. 81° and the breeze negates any humidity.
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What a joke. Next month Wake County Schools close for a breezy fall day! So ridiculous. I can certainly agree when winds are forecast to gust over 50mph for an extended period. But keep in mind folks, there are areas all over this great nation where that's a perfectly normal day!
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Durham, Raleigh, Chapel Hill. Roughly 20 mile sides I suppose.
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The nighttime lows are starting to crash into the lower 60s here in the Triad but we still have a couple of weeks to get past the tropical influence and reset the fall progression. Looks like we will be running 5-7° high for the next 10 days or so. I swear if we get a SER that locks in I'll go postal. I cant deal with that again this year.
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You might be surprised. They may port call and take you to Coco Cay and just not let you tour Nassau. I bet they clean up Coco Cay real damn quick. Two weeks is plenty of time to bring in dozens of private cleaning crews.
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Nope, lets get it right. EVERYONE hates (non red-tag) NYC/NJ tropical posters. (love you guys in the winter though, kind of funny to watch the freakouts) Evidently people in the Bahamas have nothing on "Sandy Survivors". Give it up people. Sandy, by comparison, was a little coastal flooding combined with a few EF-1 tornadoes for localized heavy damage. Most of an island was just wiped off the map by Dorian. No equals here.
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Save the $300. Better yet, don't even order one yet. Lots of hype here as with all first canes of the year. But modeling still shows a very small storm, might not even be a Cat 2 at landfall, and still showing a greater likelihood for a FL landfall. Even if it recurves and stays just offshore you will be fine in Charleston. I'd play the waiting game on this one.
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Who declared summer over?? (Let me be the first to thank you!) 63° and breezy!!?? Win!
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As unfortunate as it is, yes, yes I did know that. I endure this miserable heat every day and countdown my weekends until October. Almost there!
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What Triad is this you speak of? My Triad has had plenty of 90s??
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You never know....see Solak's post above from August 8th where NOAA increased chances for an above normal season. It could get wild in Oct/Nov given SSTs. The fuel is there. You just need the pattern to tap it.
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Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter
kvegas-wx replied to Iceagewhereartthou's topic in Southeastern States
Just give me Accuwxs "mainly pleasant" conditions all the way to Christmas Eve, then a 1 week long polar vortex between Christmas Day and New Years Day that dumps double our avg annual snowfall, then normal winter conditions for Jan/Feb and I'll deal with whatever is left over in March. It's not that hard Mother Nature. It's just not that hard. -
We are also at that point in time when the late afternoon heat isn't quite as intense. As long as you stay in the office during the mid-day hours you can still mow the lawn after supper without frying. Mid-day 90s quickly drop to low 80's and upper 70's which ain't bad. Another 3-4 weeks and those 7am bus stops will be far more enjoyable. Hang on friends, those 90 day winter outlooks will be coming into range very soon!
