kvegas-wx
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Everything posted by kvegas-wx
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Enjoyed watching some whacko on the live cam taking an evening jog through the snow up there! Can't wait. Let's do this Katherine!
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For you north of Danville, yes. But in the central piedmont and as you move down towards CLT no. Even the last guidance from RAH is calling for wet snow with surface temps just above freezing.
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Without a better cold air source, I'd go 5:1. Chop QPF in half almost everywhere outside the mountains.
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It has a name........Carolina Crusher. Snuck in like a thief in the night.
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Oddly enough, if you take DT's call map and slide it 50-75 miles southwest like I said earlier you end up with what looks like the RAP forecast here. I can easily see this being our outcome.
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Sounds to me like you've been reading that special weather book written by some crusty old lifetime North Carolinian called "33 and rain: A story of my life and North Carolina Winter Weather". Most of us have that book on the shelf in these parts and drag it out at least once each year.
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Well DT didn't hold back! I'm a little lost on why he scaled back the mountain and western foothill totals. It would seem his entire chart should be shifted 50-75 miles southwest.
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CMC still likes the Monday event with some significant accums through the foothills and western piedmont into central VA.
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Jackpotting a foot just south of GSO?? Nice! But the RGEM may be flying solo on this one. Not a lot of support elsewhere.
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Deal! And maybe even a "BOOM".
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I know a thing or two about shutouts and pick 6's!
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Stuart Va went from 8" on the HRRR to zero on the NAM. Dont want to be on the wrong side of the railroad tracks with this one. Difference between a touchdown and a pick6.
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The post mortem on this one is going to be interesting. 30 hours out and still no clear cut consensus.
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I think there needs to be a rule around using terms like "crushed, boom, pounded, destroyed, hammered, drops the hammer, big dog, etc". Minimum of 6" on the model run to use these terms. I mean you cant just post the RGEM or HRRR run showing a 3" snowfall and toss out BOOM with a straight face. Besides, Burger would be highly disappointed that we hijacked his buzzword for run of the mill events.
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Thanks for posting this and the explanation. This looks more reasonable to me from what my non-red tag eyes are seeing. But I don't get paid for this....except to plow other people's driveways.
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If Blacksburg is saying it was going to snow 4-5" but only accumulate 2" I could believe their map. But not much I've seen today indicates only 2" from Wilkesboro to Mount Airy to Martinsville. They can always increase tomorrow after another round of model runs I suppose.
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After that last NAM run somebody will be posting the ground temp maps in 3..2..1.. Liking my chances either in the Triad or in Stuart, VA. But I've been waiting to capture some snow drone footage and also wanting to film around Lover's Leap over towards Hillsville. This could be the best of both worlds so I may be mobile come Friday morning.
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All these models giving my farm in Stuart VA a mini-jackpot of 6-7" makes me think I will be working from there come Friday morning instead of Kernersville. Either way the trends for the Triad have no where to go but up after the 18z NAM played reverse psychology on the forum.
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NAM always sniffs out the warm nose. If its hinting at it early in the run, I'll stay keen to watch that over the next 48 hours.
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I heard you were closely related to a blind squirrel.
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I was happy to see the few flakes I saw. It was real to think a lot of us were very close to a white Christmas. But we still needed a little magic to get there. We're on to 2021!
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I'm afraid so. Going to have to call this one mostly a fail. Maybe a C just for the added excitement on Christmas, and, I have a full covering at the farm in Stuart. Happy for the mountain folks who mostly scored big! Merry Christmas!
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Good. We're at the end game. we have about 90 minutes of precip left and need a solid hour of that to be snow to have any chance of eeking out a dusting. I just want the pic.
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Full changeover in Stuart VA! Snowing nicely on the cams. Sweet! Edit - roof already covered! Really coming down hard now!
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Sounds like pingers on my security cams in stuart. Maybe a changeover! Where the heck are our southern VA friends? @Buddy1987 where you at?
