kvegas-wx
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Everything posted by kvegas-wx
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Curious, still snowing?
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Ignoring the early success in the foothills, I think ILMRoss said it earlier...something just feels off with this setup. It doesnt have a normal CAD look and it certainly doesnt appear robust enough to sustain into tomorrow deep into NC. I'm just not seeing a ton of ice with this tomorrow across the Triad.
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This makes the most sense of anything I've seen yet. DTs first call map is going to need some major modifications.
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Interesting to see Blacksburg modify their storms totals to a much wider spread. I have to believe they are trying account for elevation variances across such a broad area. Now says 1-6" snow. Thats the most vague forecast I think I've ever seen, but who can blame them! Sunday is going to be an absolute disaster for the state line areas into Southern VA.
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Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust.
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Is it odd that we are 30 hours out from what could be a major ice storm as modeled for about a million people across the i40 corridor and RAH hasnt said a peep? Did I miss it? I saw the post where they were "underwhelmed", but still. There are a lot of unexpecting folks that would need more time to prepare for power outages than just one day.
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Wow, they went all in too. 6" plus some ice! Dont think that will resonate across the foothills. For example, my farm is at 1,400' elevation in Patrick County but Meadows of Dan on the opposite side of the county is over 3,000'. Literally 15 miles difference. Tough to forecast this area with "catch-all" language.
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Yeah, I'm headed up tomorrow to check the gennie. Stuart could be on the southern end of the snow, or pinkies deep in ice/sleet. Kind of have to prepare for all of it. Not expecting much here in the Triad outside of some glazing. Certainly looks cold enough at the onset for some accretions.
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Posters in the mid-atlantic forum. We wont have any electricity to post about it anyway.
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We had some first calls out at this range for the Thursday event. Anybody ready to take a stab at Saturday night?
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That looks delicious! Valentine's Day bombogenesis....make it happen! We seriously need a better February for this subforum or psychiatric help will be required.
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Well there goes a perfectly good weekend in the Triad......(installs new chainsaw blade)
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Dude, you're in ROCKINGHAM. Did you ever expect to see a flake yesterday? You're just burning gas at midnight.
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That was very weird to watch. Same in Stuart. We got the flip and then poof! Nothing.
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Peace out. Gotta sleep. Hope everyone nets at least a quick ground cover!
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Finally cracking 40° at the farm in Stuart. Steady rain for about an hour now.
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Well, you win first report I suppose. Congrats and enjoy it!!
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42 and a very cold breeze at the farm in Stuart VA. Real feel down in the mid 30's. Rain is coming down solid now.
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One thing very noticeable is the wind picking up. Enough to ring my storm bell! Started blowing right when the rain arrived. Flag is whipping!
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Rain inbound to the Triad. It's nowcasting time. Good Luck everyone. I think our theme song for the evening will be in tribute to late and great Kenny Rogers. Cue up The Gambler please.........you got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away and know when to run, you never count your snow totals, when your sittin' in the 40's, cuz we're all gonna wash away, when the rain is done.
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53 blistering degrees in the heart of the Triad and the cloud deck is visible to the west over INT. I'll be drinking Pina Coladas and getting caught in the rain tonight.
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For reals! (Strolls in with a slight grin and some swagger in his step. Scans the room to see who is here early, looking to see where the action might be late this evening as the room fills up. Finds the punch bowl and empties 3 airplane bottles under his sleeve. Winks at the cocktail waitress serving the meat tray. He knows this is gonna be one hell of a night)
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021012618&fh=48 I'm filtered for 10:1 output. I'm sure I'm screwing something up but after looking at models until midnight last night, I have model fatigue.
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I swear I'm looking at the same 18z on TT and only seeing 3 inches across most of the state. It's almost like I'm missing the last frame or something. Either way, impressive!
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HRRR with a nice 2-3 inches for a good chunk of central NC. When was the last time we saw nearly every model evolve "into" a storm within 60 hours?
