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kvegas-wx

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Everything posted by kvegas-wx

  1. kvegas-wx
    They just missed though. I have a coworker in NW Baltimore suburbs and they have 6" and still hammering.
  2. kvegas-wx
    I trust you Burrell, but I'll be darned if I can recall even one mention of a dryslot on this event. The QPF forecast was solid. Only the NAM even hinted late in the game that the QPF may be lighter than expected. If I missed it I'm sorry. This is so frustrating to see so many people plan for the absolute worst over and over again for next to nothing. Because next time we know they wont prepare.
  3. kvegas-wx
    So if the models are horrid due to the lack of aviation data inputs, why arw they seemingly always forecasting the higher impact solutions first? Seems like the clown maps have been on steroids this year only to come up, not only short, but in some cases empty. If lack of data is the issue you would think we would bust the other way sometimes too. Or are model biases being exposed by lack of data? I'm so far above my pay grade here, but would love to know more. For once I think the TV mets have an easy job. Just take the historical avg and roll with it. Because more often than not that seems to be the solution. We expected generational, historical, biblical.......we got a glaze. Should have put this in the whining thread, sorry.
  4. kvegas-wx
    Almost looks like the triad and most of central NC is getting dryslotted! Ugh!! These models are so bad right now.
  5. kvegas-wx
    Waking up to a rather unimpressive and splotchy radar and only 32° in Kvegas? Not what I thought I was signing up for but I'll take it! Barely a glaze so far unless my 6am eyes are failing me.
  6. kvegas-wx
    Once again, what could have been. Radar is juicy!!
  7. kvegas-wx
    Van Denton backing off for the central and southern Triad. Later onset, earlier finish tomorrow. Still more than .25 but the .5 he says will be VA border on up.
  8. kvegas-wx
    Still stars and moon here in Kvegas just east of Winston. Breeze makes it quite a chilly evening. 35 and static electricity dewpoints. I think we got this one in our sights.
  9. kvegas-wx
    Many of our mountain brothers are reporting temps 2-4° colder than forecast at elevation, which is roughly between 925 and 850mb I believe. Can we use this intel as a non-model indicator that the CAD is coming in much deeper than forecast? If so, more sleet would be in order on the front end of the event, yes? No?
  10. kvegas-wx
    Yep, I think we're going low in the Triad. Meaning 29-30° instead of 31.99999°. Radar looks rather MOIST. GOM firehose engage!
  11. kvegas-wx
    We thinking max impacts in the 2-9am range for most of northern NC and southern VA?
  12. kvegas-wx
    Worst to first '21. Huge free agency year. Burrow will lead the league in passing yards. You heard it hear first!
  13. kvegas-wx
    Are you certain that isnt a midnight high temp? Would make more sense.
  14. kvegas-wx
    Good job! I'm such a lightweight I would only partake on a snow day.....or when there is Bluegrass music playing.....or if the Bengals make the playoffs.
  15. kvegas-wx
    Is there something really preventing you from getting hammered and taking the day off? In the Covid era thats called a mental health day. Do it!
  16. kvegas-wx
    The breeze here in the Triad has become steady. My dog is on the back deck looking off to the east and his long fur is just blowing behind him. Not a good sign for ice haters. The dewpoints are gonna drop quick after sunset.
  17. kvegas-wx
    The differences across these models in GSO are the differences between Saturday and 2002. 2° difference between an inconvenience and some lawn cleanup and an icy armageddon.
  18. kvegas-wx
    Man this sunshine is awesome. Badly needed for my mental health! If this is what next week looks like I can handle tomorrow. Cracking the 40° mark here in the Triad and it feels like 50°.
  19. kvegas-wx
    Some bright sunshine here in the Triad for a few hours today may help the road situation tonight a bit. But we are nearing the time for OBS with only a few model runs left. Generators were flying off the shelves this morning at Lowes in GSO. They sold 8 while I was standing there. Lets get this over with. I'm ready for 50's and sunshine next week.
  20. kvegas-wx
    Nope, nope, nope. Too much time spent prepping before and cleaning up after. Snow is easy, ice sucks. And freezing my ass off grilling outside sucks even worse. At least this round my genny and transfer switch is in place. Still dont have the whole house package capable of powering heat. But I can get hot water and portable heaters along with the fireplace. Its manageable.
  21. kvegas-wx
    I dont think anyone but @wxduncan will care much if the trends go warmer. That being said, these last minute adjustments continue to be a problem that seems to have no solution except finding more data sources other than airplanes.
  22. kvegas-wx
    Like it.....warmer rain drops, less accretion. Heavier precip, less accretion. I can see an inch of QPF netting .25 ZR and sparing a lot of folks the severe damage.
  23. kvegas-wx
    Totally agree, but I think you would also agree to approach this forecast with some skepticism. Nothing has worked out this year as modeled. Both temps and QPF forecasts have proven to be quite unreliable. If our winter trends hold we will end up with an event like we had over the weekend. If the models bust in the wrong direction this time, then yes, generational will be an understatement. I'm going to be leaning heavily on the HRRR and ICON again on this one. The NAM isn't screaming warm nose as much as it was previously, so I'm crossing my fingers that 75% of what falls in the Triad will be sleet. Time will tell.
  24. kvegas-wx
    Seems like there should be some thundersleet in there somewhere? Some very heavy bands setting up.
  25. kvegas-wx
    I lived in ATL that year and was spared the mayhem, but that just seems impossible to get 2" of ice to accrue on anything. The extreme of extremes. The amount of damage that would be done would be unimagineable. Dont wish for ice storms folks.
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