kvegas-wx

I dont think anyone but @wxduncan will care much if the trends go warmer. That being said, these last minute adjustments continue to be a problem that seems to have no solution except finding more data sources other than airplanes.

Like it.....warmer rain drops, less accretion. Heavier precip, less accretion. I can see an inch of QPF netting .25 ZR and sparing a lot of folks the severe damage.

Totally agree, but I think you would also agree to approach this forecast with some skepticism. Nothing has worked out this year as modeled. Both temps and QPF forecasts have proven to be quite unreliable. If our winter trends hold we will end up with an event like we had over the weekend. If the models bust in the wrong direction this time, then yes, generational will be an understatement. I'm going to be leaning heavily on the HRRR and ICON again on this one. The NAM isn't screaming warm nose as much as it was previously, so I'm crossing my fingers that 75% of what falls in the Triad will be sleet. Time will tell.

Seems like there should be some thundersleet in there somewhere? Some very heavy bands setting up.

I lived in ATL that year and was spared the mayhem, but that just seems impossible to get 2" of ice to accrue on anything. The extreme of extremes. The amount of damage that would be done would be unimagineable. Dont wish for ice storms folks.

Or that the precip is too heavy for rapid ice accruals. If it isnt sleet, pray for heavier downpours for most of the event.

What is this "sunny" thing that you speak of? Please elaborate.

Same for my folks in Cincy. The NAM warm nose was right there for all to see on the models a couple days ago. I guess its playing out that way.

Hang in there. Just don't rely on a bunch of weather binging weenies to provide you with a moral compass and inner strength. This place has devolved into a certified sanitarium.

FYP

Atmospheric terrorism. Gotta be the Russians. Notice how the cloud coverage stops in Central America? Dead give away. We protest. This would be an awesome animation to see for this week.

For your first post this was a good, yet painfully accurate one. As a fellow 53 year old, I blame millennials (for everything). Somehow they screwed up weather patterns. Welcome to the forum.

The videos coming out of TX this morning are just sickening. On our best day this winter, or possibly the last 4 winters, we haven't seen snowfall rates like that. Why the hell can't we ever get a blizzard?? Why is my house sinking into the ground? Why do my dogs have mushrooms growing in their paw pads??? THIS SUCKS!!!!!

Nope, Monday night is stating the TOTAL expected of 6-10" which aligns with the forecast.

You need a solid evaluation and at least two full seasons of therapy.

Dude, you may single handedly pull a rabbit out of a hat while nobody is looking. Keep it up. Now, can you get Dogecoin to the moon?

Negative ghostrider. Since when do you ever see ice across that large of a region and on both sides of the apps?? Can we just shut down the models until the planes start flying again? Or maybe start using carrier pigeons with weather sensors, or drones, or kids birthday balloons that get launched from Chuck E Cheeses parking lots. Anything to get better data for pete's sake. This torture must end!!

Ice storm a few years back made 220 south (now 74 or 73 I think) headed towards Pinehurst look just like this. Several miles of pines laying on the road before they cleared it all out. I would be hard pressed to sit calmly in my vehicle.

I'm almost there. I dont mind the cool temps as much as I mind the wet. This is getting ridiculous, and if the summer ends up dry thats even more painful. I was hoping to plant my first full one acre crop this year using my new gravity fed drip irrigation system. (I'm NOT a farmer). This is a fun project for me that mother nature is not making any easier. Cant get the field ready, too wet, and cant get my rain totes in place to catch the rain we have now. And even worse, the dogs have muddy paws every freaking day!

Big difference between power and no power for many could be the fact that winds are nearly calm. The crust is already in place, on everything, here in Kernersville and a quick peek at the security cam in Stuart is a nightmare, but there is no wind. Any change there and yes, lights out everywhere. Lets hope for a calm rise in temps later today.

Just let the dogs out. Deck is crunchy, almost like some sleety material is falling but no idea what it is.

Already looking at quarter inch icicles on the Japanese Maple branches. This may not end well in the triad if the heaviest precip is due tomorrow morning.

No matter what happens tonight and tomorrow, I can get thru it knowing that my 7 day forecast shows sunny and 50's. Of course the way the models have been verifying, we'll have our Big Dog next Saturday. Already spitting pretty steady here in Kernersville. I really hope we dont jackpot on this one. 29°.

Made it back from Cincy today. Left about 5" of compact snow behind me with another 7-10" coming early next week for a freaking ice storm? This winter in the SE blows. I'm buying grass seed asap. Time for spring.

Thanks. This one has me quite nervous because you wont know you are in it until you are in it. Thinking I will slow down a little bit tomorrow and see if I can time my arrival into Princeton, Wytheville and Mt Airy to the late afternoon. I only need 33°. VADOT will do the rest. I cant believe the cold temps forecasted up here next week wont make it down. Highs of 15°, lows around zero. We just cant win.