Thinksnow18
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Everything posted by Thinksnow18
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By that map alone I am leery. Look over lower Michigan and notice the winds over the southern tip of Lake Michigan out of the WSW and the northern part NNW…that doesn’t line up that way usually. Rotation alone would have a more WNW wind over southern Lake Michigan. Add in if the winds were WSW that far west our wind field would be closer to a true SW maybe even A SSW orientation. That looks off.
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My sons soccer team has been vivid ravaged, we were supposed to be in Ohio yesterday for a couple games and we didn’t go for other reasons, but learned this morning 5 of the 15 that went have tested positive. Good thing we missed it. As for this event upcoming I think it will move around enough to make most in our WNY forum happy.
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Ahhh yes he went to SUNY Oswego…did you also study Meteorology there?
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I graduated ‘93. I believe we had this conversation once before. I grew up in Wurlitzer park. Aaron and I were in the varsity soccer team for three years.
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Did you go to NTHS
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So did i
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So i guess it comes down to which model is right…if the GFS is right then it’s epic, if the euro is correct it’s less epic but the area sees a synoptic snow event. Two VERY different camps right now
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While I agree about Mentkowski, I feel the other 2 are married to their in-house model too often and won’t go by other guidance…I remember we had this exact talk last year during a similar event that their models were a good 15-20 miles too far south with placement of that band…and they did t deviate even while it was ripping up here. It constantly wanted to shift the band south seemingly by the hour. I feel that conservative nature hurts them.
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Yes I have, since DP left full time the others fir the most part are hacks…I guess I just keep thinking it’ll change…nope
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His forecast was for the band in Thursday at 2pm over southern Erie and Northern Chautauqua…remarkably different from the NWS forecast…and the icing on it he said the band at its heaviest MIGHT reach up to an inch per hour…WTF
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And the euro which is way off and correcting towards the GFS is what both 2 and 4 are showing…so they’re riding the euro right off a cliff.
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So Mike Cejka (local Met WIVB channel 4 Buffalo)is stating the metro is going to get a quick hit from the lake effect…not 1 model is showing this with the exception of their in-house garbage model…every year they have a terrible south bias to their model and every year it’s much further north than it states…terrible…
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To be fair it’s about 5 miles north but the very heaviest accumulation will be airport or just south to Lancaster, Depew, Blasdell, Hamburg…I think the north areas are between 6-18” (N-S) with 24”+ in the areas I identified.
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The 12z would have the heart of the band metro North towns and east for about 12 hours. Even at 1-2” an hour (which seems low but just going that way for sanity) that would be 1-2’.
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Again til 7am only
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It’s just a guess but if the NWS has highlighted the word SIGNIFICANT then they must be thinking someone is getting more than 24”
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If that’s 7am and they expect the band, per their wording to be impacting the metro for most of the day, are we looking at a possible record day???
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The 8-12 is about 1 mile north of my neighborhood. That is sweating it!
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Huntsville Al with 6”!!!
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Ended with a touch less 2.5” for the entirety. I agree with the watches being hoisted, latest tomorrow am.
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This makes me think the euro op at 12z will be a bit further east, emulating the GFS. Eventually I believe it gets there.
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So at this point we have 2 camps…the GFS which would give much of WNY south of Niagara Falls very happy Wednesday night into much of Thursday with heavy lake effect,but not much outside that unto the weekend for anyone else…the other camp is the Euro which would still give the same area LES but to much lesser degree, however would give all of upstate a pretty big snowfall of 6+” on Thursday night and Friday. As they say the devil is in the details.
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And every model never gets that right…with 40 degree waters shift that band about 5 miles north. We have this come up every time.
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Looks like myself, Buckeyes_Suck, you and Devin are going to reap the rewards of this one.
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That makes 2 of us…
