Thinksnow18
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Everything posted by Thinksnow18
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That HRRR has my confidence a bit renewed. I never thought I’d get the jackpot, 1/100 times we do, but I still expected between 8-10”…as the day went on I was thinking more 4-6” but now I’m feeling a bit more confident in the higher number again.
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It was nuts…took my GMC Jimmy from my parents house in NT and got as far as the 198…there were cars stuck everywhere especially near Delaware park. I had 4 wheel drive and was fine but I felt for some of those drivers.
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I remember that. I was coming home from Syracuse and remembered there was a warning for the northern part of the county but I believe Buffalo got smoked as the band just stalled over the city.
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Man these models are all over the place!!! No wonder they still haven’t made a call yet
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Just noticed an update to the AFD…now calling for 240-250 vector winds and plume could now last until Thursday night and maybe Friday as well. Said will move around a bit Thursday within those vector parameters
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In that pic my neighborhood is roughly in the area where Sheridan meets Main Street…then go to transit and it’s right there…solidly in the heaviest snows…
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That northern band is pure northern Erie. The second band is southtowns
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Looks like for 14221 Williamsville the point forecast is for 5-9” Wednesday night and Thursday heavy snow until 1pm. They seem to still be sticking with that forecast…in fact this morning it was 4-8” so it went up slightly. Love to see what they’re seeing
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Lmao it figures…probably why they haven’t pulled the plug and issued a warning yet
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Some time ago Don used a wind vector that showed how the lake bands were directed. Do any of you have this?
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What’s odd is none of those are a 240 vector. That’s more 250…I see a lot of biases with models that are inherently born jnto their design. For example, if you look at the GFS output for any total snowfall output Syracuse is always a huge number…that never comes a fraction of that amount. I think these models have algorithm flaws.
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There’s one factor I’m surprised they haven’t mentioned and that’s when the entire lake is in play that can be more than sufficient to rev up the amounts. If that we’re to happen and it locks on the city? Woof…that would be insane
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Isn’t it odd the GFS and Euro completely swapped places??? Ok maybe not that weird…
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Weird right? I fought that battle yesterday and found out they’re gibberish. On that note the NWS is really locked in that 240 vector. But with lake effect you never know.
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With the AFD this morning and how it reads I’m kinda shocked they didn’t pull the trigger in a lame snow warning. It’s extremely pin point and they give out a locked 240 wind for the entirety of the event and up to 9” overnight with 5-8 more on Thursday. Metro Buffalo out to corfu will be the heaviest accumulation, in their verbiage, with lightning up to 20 miles away from the lake.
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I used to do every one of those things…then I had kids…and then they got into sports…I no longer do those things…I live vicariously through you HairyLegBuffaloWeather!!!
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It’s definitely shifted north in expansion as well. This morning the 990 on the map didn’t have any snow or very little now it’s in the 8-12” area…and even places like NT in southern Niagara county are 2-4”
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WIVb did a complete 180…the band never leaves the metro…wobbles a bit south on Thursday afternoon…so now that it mentioned to me earlier that the local stations do not have in house models whose due they emulate?
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12-18…I take
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It’s not high winds. Not even advisory type winds. Just some gusts up to 40. That’s 10 to 20mph winds sustained. Nothing out of the ordinary. Plus why is everyone so negative about this event? Yes we’ve been burned, it’s the weather. Just look at the actual features as they are being uncovered and go from there. A 240 vector is dead center metro Buffalo, that’s the wind vector the NWS is seeing, not any of us. We’re speculating at best.
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It also has it connecting the Lake Ontario band…winds won’t nearly be that strong. The NWS also says it’s leaning more heavily in the CMC at this juncture.
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Ever since it went through the upgrade it has performed better this year for sure.
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That’s what the GFS and the CMC are showing
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Lmao just read it…if correct I’ll sleep on Friday morning…reads 240 vector for the MAJORITY of the event!!! It gets even better…they’re expecting 20-1 ratios…combined with up to 40 mph gusts??? I can’t go there yet but some areas the B word might get thrown around…
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A little different on my point n click…heavy snow after 7pm new precipitation 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch! Thursday heavy snow until noon. if that were to come to fruition then that’s a solid 15 hours over the metro nearby northtowns…that would make my winter
