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Waiting on snow

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  1. Waiting on snow
    I wonder if a storm does form this weekend even if it misses, if it can get in the 50/50 location and help with the day 9-10 event? I may be wishcasting because that theory should apply to the 25th storm helping the weekend storm, and it's apparently not going to do so.
  2. Waiting on snow
    I had high hopes this year because it appears to be solar driven somewhat. 09-10 solar minimum and extreme blocking. The Maunder Minimum and little ice age where the extreme cold over England and the eastern US lasted for decades had to be NAO driven. And that can't be a coincidence that it occurred during the sunspot minimum. I'm sure there are other drivers but that appears to be one.
  3. Waiting on snow
    Unfortunately this may be the pattern. Blocking continues to be muted. So far this -NAO is just a phantom. And my money is on it stays that way. If the Pacific holds on we have a chance to time something up. It's been decent storms without the NAO for several years. This year will have to find a way too.
  4. Waiting on snow
    As far as where we go from here, we always do better as the pattern relaxes. And it looks to relax the first of Feb. so maybe the storm 9 days out will pan out. As Bob Chill pointed out it doesn't look like Pac puke will lock in and blast all the cold off the continent. It may be a temporary -PNA and reload. We'll see.
  5. Waiting on snow
    I'm guessing there is no high over the ne and no 50/50 low. I wouldn't write it off, but northern stream energy diving is not usually good for us. That's the same model that had historic cold that very same day, and now has a storm crossing north Florida and it's not cold enough for snow. All you can do is lol and realize they're struggling badly.
  6. Waiting on snow
    It really depends on if the Pac jet really cranks up again. A temporary -PNA we can recover from. If that Pac jet cranks up again in Feb close the blinds. Only time will tell I guess.
  7. Waiting on snow
    Yes I'm referring to 10 days or so. Seems to be the best we can do. Also 09-10 was the year of blocking and was a top 5 cold winter. Once the Pac pukes it always seems to last at least 4 weeks. But when it comes to us a fly can fart and the trough is out of here! That said it doesn't look torchy. More average very long range. But who knows anymore? As long as its not a huge SER our chances are about the same to score. Hopefully after next weekend it won't matter to most how it unfolds.
  8. Waiting on snow
    I won't say I told you so. But I will say I never believed it for a minute. We don't lock in cold patterns on the east coast in winter anymore. I'm guessing that's because of the NAO and its refusal to be anything but positive in winter. We can lock in endless torches but not good patterns. I saw the writing on the wall two nights ago this was coming.
  9. Waiting on snow
    You don't have to worry about starting a thread based on the 18z GFS.
  10. Waiting on snow
    He very well may be right. I'm wondering if the MJO is the reason the modeling is wanting to breakdown the Pac though?
  11. Waiting on snow
    We'll see how it all pans out I guess. For now I'll just focus on the potential of next weekend and hope for the best afterwards.
  12. Waiting on snow
    The 12z continues the trend at hr 282 and downhill from there. Ridge over the Aleutians and low north of Hawaii.
  13. Waiting on snow
    The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range.
  14. Waiting on snow
    I figured these 0z runs would wake this place up.
  15. Waiting on snow
    Why do you think I hate winter? I'm always waiting on snow that I never get!! Lol it's always so elusive and just barely out of reach!
  16. Waiting on snow
    I absolutely hate winter!!!!!!!!
  17. Waiting on snow
    Well that's a shocker! Can we just get this dumpster fire over with and warm up at least?
  18. Waiting on snow
    Haven't you heard? The gov't shutdown is affecting the American models? Oh wait...nevermind that is the CMC. Lol
  19. Waiting on snow
    What? Where is all this cold? That's the time frame it was suppose to be the coldest I thought?
  20. Waiting on snow
    Not even close to historic. Half the board hasn't seen a flake. And temps have been above average the entire time so far. Dec was +1-3 depending on location and Jan is +5 so far, although that looks to surely plummet.
  21. Waiting on snow
    The crystal ball is climatology. Odds are it's not going to snow here regardless of the pattern. I guess chances increase over the shut out pattern we were in. But are still slim and its always a fly in the ointment. You just have to find it.
  22. Waiting on snow
    Yeah the long range ensembles look to lose the PNA. The blocking up top is there but I don't see how a conus wide trough is good for us at all. I could be wrong but seems like the storms would amplify due to the block and cut without a strong trough centered on the east coast. I sure hope we squeeze something in from the 26th through the 31st. Because if the models are correct and we lose the west coast ridge and waste the first week of Feb trying to rebuild it, then we're on borrowed time after that.
  23. Waiting on snow
    I'm glad they're moderating. Sure it would be nice to set cold records in a time where that is so rare. But it would never snow with that kind of cold push. And in the end snow is all I care about. But that's just me. Others may enjoy the dry cold.
  24. Waiting on snow
    Unfortunately though it looks like both the GEFS and the GEPS both break down this so far phantom epic pattern by Feb now. Hard to believe we may screw it up but I guess it is the south.
  25. Waiting on snow
    Yes. It gets even more comical at 384. Surely it'll do a 180 in 6 hrs!
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