Hotair

Euro ensembles from @HurricanesJames show tight overlap.

TV reminding folks how far Ian track was from actual LF 72 hours out. I do believe the steering patterns are a little better behaved this time given the multi model consensus, but no one inside the cone should let their guard down

NOAA3

Satellite is suggestive of Idalia forming an eye .

Uni of Florida should be preparing for a possible direct hit given this scenario

Storm surge would be disastrous for parts of St Pete and along the Tampa Bay region even if LF ends up being well North of us. 11 ft in the bend would literally bury many communities in water along the armpit

Buoy near Idalia showing rapid pressure drop. Storm could be intensifying rapidly

@tbrite89 just said the following: IF tropical storm (soon to be #hurricane #Idalia) were to achieve MH intensity and make landfall in the area between Apalachicola and Horseshoe Beach, FL…it will be the first known occurrence in recorded history (dating back to 1851). For the area between Horseshoe Beach and Cedar Key, it was 1896. For Cedar Key to Spring Hill, 1950. Spring Hill to Tampa, 1921.

Eric Webb @webberweather Fwiw, #Idalia's current analyzed minimum central pressure (SLP) on the latest NHC advisory is in the bottom 4% of all 35-40 knot tropical storms in this part of the Atlantic basin since 1970.

I’m very concerned over a potential Tampa LF. This storm is not on many folks radar and given it’s already late Sunday and folks go to school and work tomorrow means there’s less free time for any proper preparation

What the heck are fractional predictions ?

The cone on this one seems rather unusual to me. Do we get many storms in the gulf that transit North to South ?

stats for a named storm in June.

16/6/3

000 WTNT62 KNHC 091653 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1155 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 ...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT ABACO ISLAND... Weather radar data from the Bahamas and surface observations indicate that the center of Nicole has made landfall on Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas with an estimated intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just east of Great Abaco Island, reported a minimum pressure of 986.8 mb (29.14 inches) as the center passed near it. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the estimated minimum pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). SUMMARY OF 1155 AM EST...1655 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

Many friends and family in Ft lauderdale and North to West Palm Beach. Not a Single one is taking this storm seriously. Like zero. I hope it’s because they have extra supplies from Ian but I y family there boarded up for Ian and they are not planning to board up for this. Keeping it at TS intensity < 48 to landfall has a lot to do with the thinking that it won’t get dangerous in time

I had a good run. 2022 sure gave the models a run for their money.

Same here. Bummer. I had already spent my prize money for winning the forecast contest

13 named storms with Martin as of today the score is 13-5-2 but who’s counting ? LoL

Fingers crossed

Death toll confirmed stands at 15 now

Just saw drone video footage of homes in both Sanibel and in Cape Coral. A surprising number of homes look intact. A testament to the Florida building codes. As for water damage from surge flooding that’s a different story altogether.

EVery now and then you see a home that is completely obliterated. Is this due to construction type? or did we happen to have small tornadoes spawning in the area on top of the wind and surge ?

Everyone is in on it. When you can get flood insurance in a high risk area in Florida for half of what it costs in say Connecticut, people build knowing their investment is more or less secure through tax payer subsidies surge is now forecast along the entire East coast

You are correct. I shouldn’t have said underwater. They’ve been crushed with high winds but the storm surge is not what fort Myers is experiencing edit: this is the video I had based my statement on. It claimed to be from punta gorda https://twitter.com/YaCelacanto/status/1575247806889136143?s=20&t=10p9wRsEoX2GAPuBpEq5IQ