Hotair

Looking like a bowling ball curling to hit a strike in Tampa

Happy birthday. I’m in Tampa and while I lived in Miami during Andrew, I was well North of its major impacts. This may be a repeat of the intensity I experienced back then. I can tell you with all candor that I don’t want to ever relive a close call with cane strength winds as much as I’m fascinated by them. Hoping for a further shift West.

Hopefully the mid level shear keeps Elsa from closing an eyewall and strengthening further

@USCG Sector #KeyWest was alerted to people in the water 23 mi SE of KW from the M/V Western Carmen, who rescued 2 survivors. #USCGC Thetis arrived on scene & their small boat crew rescued 10 more people from the water. Hats off to the brave men and women of the US Coast Guard. Just amazing what they do.

St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport is telling residents to grow a pair and IS NOT Ceasing Operations due to Elsa and will remain OPEN! They are leaving it up to the airlines to cancel flights. Contact your airline prior to arriving at the airport to see whether or not your flight is cancelled.

000 WTNT65 KNHC 061745 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER... Recent Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the Elsa has strengthened and maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the intermediate advisory to reflect this change and to issue a hurricane warning for a portion of the west coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF 145 PM EDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin

I had my hopes up earlier Elsa would stay clear to the west and remain under 50mph. Now I’m not so sure and Tampa looks to be on the wrong end of her stick. I’m off to batten down the hatches and secure the yard

Hurricane Hunters just found 60 MPH winds outside the eye wall edit: Hurricane Hunters just measured 70 MPH flight-level winds near the western side of Elsa. Not at the strongest side yet.

Key West is now reporting electrical outages due to Elsa

70 mph winds in the Keys now. Impressive

Latest noaa advisory discussion describes the unfavorable conditions that Elsa is up against. In west Florida we always have to worry about tornadoes flash flooding of course ahead of storms like Elsa, but luckily I won’t feel the need to buy $80 sheets of plywood for now :-) The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high end of the numerical intensity guidance.

Elsa is experiencing so much shear to its West that it’s becoming little more than an average thunderstorm. If anything, it’s the perfect warm up storm for South West Florida for what could well be another active hurricane season. Hopefully roofs and structures that are borderline will get much needed attention once Elsa passes through and dumps on the region.

Hurricane hunters are reporting that they are delayed taking off on Elsa recon due to bad weather in Biloxi. No ETA given

Given how disorganized Elsa looks on satellite presently, i feel it’s now more likely she won’t have much opportunity to strengthen before passing by Tampa / st. Pete. Hopefully not much different to what Summerland Key is experiencing presently.

So seems like Elsa will stay well offshore of Tampa / St. Pete. Still will likely see 3-5 ft storm surge and flooding rains and perhaps up to 50 mph wind gusts. Does that sound about right for Tampa presently?

Hope sheltering does not create a further issue with Covid. i am concerned with the flooding from this storm. Does anyone know how the expected ETA in the Tampa Bay region matches up with the tide?

Little rain and breezy in Tampa right now. Hillsborough schools have the day off today thankfully. I can tell you that the area has had next to zero prep for any sort of major weather. With the way nearly every single GC storm has attempted intensification on approach this year, I’m concerned for folks along the coast.