Hotair

Visual sat imagery shows Ian is expanding its outflows along all quadrants.

000 WTNT34 KNHC 241453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...IAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 75.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 75.2 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday when it approaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14 inches Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up to 5 inches through Tuesday morning These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Statistical probabilities for RI are all rather favorable. See here https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ai-ri/

Fun fact: “I” is the most frequent storm name letter to be retired also, missing from most Hurricane readiness lists, but just as critical: cigarettes, cold beer, diesel fuel and cash When you have storm damage and need to lure someone with a chainsaw or a tarp to your property first, these are the essential bargaining chips.

@MJVentrice Put it up on his channel Edit: tool developed by @alanbrammer based on watermark

I like best how this graphic shows the slight Westward shift in guidance. Clearly sucks for Tampa Bay but we can hope the trend continues Dark line is the latest model track

Cuba is not expecting it until Tuesday so we still have 4-5 days of tracking in front of us. Even a TS headed directly into Tampa Bay would cause considerable flooding damage to the area. Timing of LF and tide will be crucial here. I guess my concern here in Tampa is not so much the winds (building codes here are good through CAT 2 ) but the flooding potential especially if it stalls in the vicinity. edit: just to vent, ridiculous that Hillsborough county in Tampa has no plans to provide sandbags to residents. Prior storms where we were well outside the cone, sand was made available. Pretty disappointing.

Lots of variables here including how much interaction we see with Cuba’s Western end. The more West it moves now the less opportunity for Cuba to disrupt it some. Helps the SW coast of Florida, but perhaps means a stronger storm headed to the panhandle

Which for now, makes it more dangerous for Tampa Bay unfortunately

Recon data showing the start of circulation

Just fyi for those who are visiting or plan on flying out of the area ahead of Ian Tampa, Clearwater and Sarasota airports may discontinue service as early as Monday afternoon. Plan accordingly.

I’m sorry, not understanding. Only chance for what? Lf as a hurricane? Even if winds are not catastrophic, the potential for flooding damage seems significant if it makes it anywhere near Tampa, No?

Im turning in. Time for some meds that make me drowsy. Here is the latest sat presentation as of approx 9:30

SEVEN recon flights are scheduled between tomorrow and Sunday morning with more scheduled for Sunday afternoon and evening. 2 high altitude missions, 2 tail radar missions and 3 additional fix flights. The NHC probably has surplus budget this year that has gone unused so they are going to be providing great coverage of this storm.

Roger that. Ian confirmed. Someone opening a new thread?

Anyone post the latest intensity model guidance yet? Here it is

And don’t get me started on windstorm insurance

18z

000 WTNT34 KNHC 232345 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 71.5W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 71.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday. More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the following rainfall: Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches. Heavy rains may begin to affect South Florida on Monday. Limited flash and urban flood impacts may be possible with this rainfall. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

I hear you. I threw away my Irma (I’m pretty sure it was Irma) plywood to make room for another car in the garage. Same concerns. The storage racket here is insane as no homes have basements and few have useable attics @NWSTampaBay now says 83mph winds w/ gusts of 103mph Wends afternoon in Sarasota. Yikes!

I’m right at the center of the cone here in Tampa. The one positive is that 5 days out, the likelihood of that trajectory staying unchanged is next to nil. Still concerning as I am in no position right now to board up anything as I was released from hospital just last week. Also the cost of plywood makes covering windows a rich man’s game. $780 is the quote I just got using OsB. anyhow to make this relevant. We will be getting an intermediate advisory on #TD9 at 8 PM

Models are converging in a way that suggest significant Hurricane effects across Havana Cuba. This would be devastating for the people there as food is already scarce across the country and Havana is of course densely populated.

Thanks. Yes I see that now. Sites like this one are incorrectly labeling it as Newton https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/tropical-storm-newton-could-become-seasons-most-significant-storm?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert

I thought this was interesting Mike Ventrice @MJVentrice Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the Atlantic Hurricane Season is running at 13% of normal.