Coach B

I'm closing in on 3" here in southern middle TN. Scattered power outages showing up as well!

Still ripping here just outside of Lewisburg. Have to be close to 2" with all surfaces covered. Haven't been out to the main road, but the driveway and sidewalk are white. Temp down to 30.6

Here in southwest Marshall county I've got all snow with a temp of 32.5. Just measured .5" on the snowboard.

HUN just upgraded to a WSW as well!

Could be a combination of both. If you look closely at the 12z HRRR accum map, there is a bit of a gap in middle TN as well. Just like always, there is going to be winners and losers based on elevation and where the bands develop.

My temp has dropped into the upper 50s with steady rain in S mid TN. Sure doesn't have the severe feel??

Appreciate all of the play by play from y'all. There seems to be much disappointment/frustration out there from many on our current pattern and the forecast for the next two weeks. However, my hope is that we can time up a slow tour through MJO phases 8 - 2 just in time for our peak winter period in mid to late January. All those of us outside the mountains need is a week or two of the goods.

Tom Niziol, a retired winter weather expert from the Weather Channel and the NWS, is a great Twitter follow. He has a house at Roan Mountain and consistently posts great weather updates from there as well as winter themed things from around the nation. He is one of my favorite follows!

Chattanooga!

I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up.

I was supposed to get mostly freezing rain with the first batch where I am south of Nashville, but I've got mostly sleet with lots of snow grains. I'm holding at 25 for now.

I think the all snow forecast will be wrong, but I hope it's right!

Frozen in New Orleans and Macon, but a warm nose into middle TN.

Only a bit of melting here outside of Lewisburg. Temp has been stubborn to move much above freezing. Took a hike to the top of the almost 1200 foot ridge behind the house. Guessing between three and four inches up there. House is about 990 and had 2" here. I've got to remember to add a snowboard up there for comparison.

I'm sure I had a bit of melting/compaction overnight, but I ended up with right at 2" this morning. Fantastic little event for many of us. Sounds like the models were spot on with the finger of slightly heavier accums back into southern middle TN and for the Plateau.

Ground now totally covered. Probably between a quarter and half an inch. Temp 33. I'm southwest of Lewisburg at about 1000 feet.

I've got all snow outside of Lewisburg. Temp now down to 34.

Cold all the way to Tampico!

I don't think the 12Z CMC was as cold as its previous run or as cold as the 12Z GFS. However, it did have WAY more frozen precip than its previous run across the forum area.

Interesting. I think for official measurements you are supposed to use a snowboard and sweep it clean every six hours. I've used a snowboard for several years now and it can vary quite a bit from old school ground measurements. If the ground is frozen solid, you'll get more with a ground measurement. If its warm and/or wet, you get significantly more on the snowboard.

I don't know how to describe that trailing energy, but it seems some of the models are keying on it for any hope of accums west of the Plateau.

TT's Positive Snow Depth Change always looks more realistic to me:

OHX am Disco on next week: "However, with that shift in high pressure influences eastward, an developing inverted surface troughing pattern will develop as first half of next work week progresses from a surface low expected to be centered in far southern plains. Upper level flow will increasingly developing zonal characteristics supportive of passages of weak disturbances aloft as mid next week approaches also. By the way, lows Monday night are expected to be in the mid 20s with highs on Tuesday warming to mid 30s to lower 40s and then lows once again back in the 20s on Tuesday night. The set up of this surface inverted troughing pattern would likely bring a good amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. As one might, this could result in a pretty significant overrunning/isentropic lift snow event across portions of the contiguous U.S. Southeast including mid state region. Certainly more additional upcoming model runs needed for additional clarification and interpretation, but with at least a couple of consecutive consensus model runs advertising this possibility, cold air remaining in place from initial early week artic high pressure system could potently set the stage for a major heavy snowfall event across mid state region. Again, this is not a given by any means this far out, and is still outside our official 7 day forecast window. However, this consensus model depiction set up is quite favorable for a heavy snowfall event. Simply, the 2021 version of Old Man Winter may pay a visit to our area early next week and leave in his wake a winter wonderland type several inches of snowfall accumulation event."

Measured .2" on the snowboard at home southwest of Lewisburg. Just a dusting in town. Roads, even at elevation, are just wet. Very small flakes dominated with a temp of 32-34. Oh, and we're in school! The central counties in middle TN seem a little more stringent about closing than those both farther east and west.

I have been trying to remind myself while gazing at the long range that we were told a couple of things by these SSW experts: 1. They do not always lead to cold and snow for the eastern US. That said, they can still have a major effect on the pattern, most of us just don't really care if it doesn't deliver(myself included). 2. Cohen talked extensively about a trickle down effect for us. We are usually third in line on these deals anyway. Siberia/China are first and they had historic high pressure/cold a week ago. Europe is second and I just saw some buried cabins in the Alps and a bunch of crazy snow pics from Madrid. So maybe this shows up by February here. I think I remember reading there was often as much as a 30 day lead time on effects for us. Maybe we are rushing it?? I get it, even those of us who know better want to see some pretty maps on the ops or ensembles to feel better.