RevWarReenactor

I woke up at 4am today, and my analysis is actually spot on.

The 6z GFS shows one rainer after the next. Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo. We don't do marginal situations well. Heck we can't even seem to manage snowing when its 16 degrees outside. I-95 is probably cooked. Mountains still have a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the panic room. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. This is the problem when the MA, when its super cold its congrats North Carolina. When its marginal, its congrats Poconos PA. We are the snow anus.

No model has a clue that far out. Honestly at this point the GFS shouldn't run past hr 84. You all are looking in the 200's. Its essentially fiction.

Great event got nothing

HRRR looks a bit more north even Philly gets in on it.

Its weird how looking at storms that could be rain coming for us is way better than looking at temps in the teens with absolutely nothing. At least we have a shot. I don't think its a good one, but its a better one than suppression to North Carolina while my heating bill skyrockets.

I like how if you get skunked on the Wed clipper, you likely make up for it with the Friday one and vice versa. I get zero from tomorrow's clipper. But the Friday one looks better.

The 6z GFS offers some hope. Tonights clipper is more north. Friday's clipped is more juiced with some places gettsing a few hours of light snow. VD looks like two potentials; could be rain, could be congrats north carolina, but the potential is there.

Only half our region will score that dusting based on current models. Thats at best.

Thats a shame. Chances of snow on snow are now gone. I know its rare. But it seemed like we really had an opportunity with all this cold.

It’s pretty obvious we punt the next few weeks. Now we just have to hope things reset for late February or early March. If not- this winter was decent; for a Nina.

Honestly I think flurries along I-95 would probably be a boom at this point. But we probably won’t see anything.

Do you sense it? This is all we are going to get. As far as another storm goes- winter is over

So after a dusting here or there and one more reinforcing shot of cold air is the general consensus that it’s se ridge time? When I open a February thread to see a discussion on march snow that’s what I’m assuming is the vibe

6z gfs advertises the fear; cold dry followed by warm and rain in the extended,

It was so obvious the gfs was going to turn that little swath of precip mid week into nothing. Next run it will probably be gone entirely.

We do care about the pack. We want snow on snow. That’s part of the rush around here. That and usually this type of cold has an expiration date and then it’s back to cutters and rainstorms. The clock is ticking.

What’s crazy is it actually seems easier to get snow 500 miles south of us. Just get tons of cold in and it delivers down there. We are either too warm or too cold.

Marginal temps. North trends. What could go wrong?

GFS is waaaaay east. Thing practically makes a B line for bermuda once it forms. LOL

This is a good winter. Most of us are already at average yearly snowfall or above. We are just wasting the chance of it to be a historic winter. But its a Nina, so.....

A 40% chance of 4 inches of snow in DC? What model are they looking at? The DT one?

Can't stand him. I've met him in person. WEnt to a baseball game with him. Went to breakfast with him. Im sure Randy could write a book on him but leaves the past in the past. Anyway, everyone here at work still thinks we are getting this storm. The facebook hype machine is real. Just talked to my boss "OMG and another storm this weekend!" I just nodded my head. Eh.......

Whats making this thing suddenly go west? If we can get more of that, we might bring this one back. Its only got to move like 200 miles. Its only Wednesday. That might be doable?