RevWarReenactor

Unprecedented that everyone is legitimately hanging it up on Jan 31st. Its that horrible.

Yeah, no. Please, not another March turn around. Please! Don't do it!

Wes is such a nice guy, somehow me and him just clicked at the conference in 2009. Its a shame they don't post as much.

And here I thought I was making a more positive post. Would it be better if I whined about how warm it is too?

I said, it doesn't FEEL like its been that warm. I wasn't disputing the records.

It doesn't really feel like its been that warm. Above normal sure. But not super warm. I can remember years of 50's being pretty much normal was it 2011-2012?. . But at least in the NYC forum, this is the 9th warmest January on record. Apparently Atlanta and NYC also have had similar max and min temps in the month of January, which is kind of bizarre.

Thanks for the summary, and I did actually read your classroom instruction so I know what you are saying about it generally being a bad setup and us lucking our way into snow. I think where I depart from the general consensus is when you start calling the last 4 years normal or standard climo. I don't see how a historically bad run can be anything but historically bad. I am not really sure why I even get push back on this. Its kind of strange. I don't think those other years are necessarily bad, but we've just had bad luck recently with either nothing or March meltathons padding numbers (which I prefer didn't happen). Yes, Delaware has been above average the last couple years in a technical sense. But we shutout our prime climo and the birds where singing and the sun angle was glaring when we got our snow. I know your thinking "March snow counts". Got it. But I'd take 2 inches in January over 10 inches in March any day. That's just me. March is springtime. March is "ah what could have been if this happened in Jan or Feb". Sick of it. If we cant get a single flake during our prime climo, it shouldn't suddenly become easy in March. Its frustrating. I REALLY hope this "winter" comes to a close March 1st. On the Blizzard, no doubt if you got 11 inches and your neighbors got 40 inches, you'd be massively disappointed too. Its just how it is. Yeah, that was a great snowstorm. I'll admit that, but we sure paid a lot for our 11 inches.

Well I can't speak specifically for DC, but it was a wet storm in Delaware, didn't stick to streets, melted as it fell. Granted we got a lot less so rates might have been a problem here and not in DC. I understand that 43 degrees is a normal temp in DC, but its not abnormal to get a cold snowstorm. Just like its not abnormal to have temps in the 50's and even 60's during prime climo. In fact, we are doing that quite well this year.

Thanks for putting together the stats. I don't disagree with any of it. Where I disagree is in the interpretation, saying we are on track for the worst 4 year period is not "climo of leaner years". Its historically bad. Everything you describe above is historically horrible and not run of the mill climo. Would you say a one in 30 year snowstorm in DC was normal climo or historical? It would be historical. So what is the difference? None that I can see.

I don't know, I looked at BWI's snowfall chart and it supports my argument even more.

One liners like this only convince me I am right. Me and PSU had a good talk, I learned a lot, and he did in fact say we are well below normal. So there is that.

I am just arguing against the people who say "this is normal" or "this is our climo" and use stuff that happened years ago to try and justify it. 8% of DC's climo is not their climo actually. I should probably just stop. Its been talked out. I am just frustrated and I am frustrated that people on a weather forum that love snow, aren't equally as frustrated and are actually trying to say "normal climo here" which is simply statistically false.

What you can't change, no matter how hard you try is that, last years snowstorm INCLUDED, this has been a record breaking 4 year snowless period if DC ends the years with less than 2.4 inches....which is probably on track. That is just stats.

On the plus side, I think the upcoming pattern is good for chasing in Vermont again! Yeh! They might get one after another being on the right side of things. As for here, my prediction is that I-95 virtually shuts out the rest of the year, outside of an inch here or there.

If you want to hang your hat on last years January "snowstorm", then yes, we've had it "amazing". I didn't know one isolated wet snowstorm that melts off a few days later makes up for 4 years of record breaking below normal snowfall. I knew we had bad climo, but I didn't know we lived in South Carolina.

Yeah, I am sure we will have a good winter again one of these years. Thanks for the map! Interesting to see the comparison. But it highlights my point even more. Since 1883 BWI has only had 1 other year with as little snowfall as this to date. How crazy is that? Truly historical and not at all "normal".

Okay, fair enough. I appreciate all your information. I really have learned a lot! I understand what you are saying that our seasons here really are hit or miss, especially lately. But even for a miss season, this is still pathetically bad. What are you at 8 inches for the year and average about 40? That is bad even for a bad year. I guess I just need to focus my attention on other stuff and forget about snow here this year, and hope to chase somewhere again in February and hope for better years in the future.

Talking about time in between. So we have one year that is bad. Okay well we had a few good years so..... So now we have two years in a row that are bad......okay well this sucks. But we did have a few good years. Then comes 3 years in a row that are bad.....okay now this is starting to get annoying. Then comes 4 years in a row that are bad......okay, now this is historically bad. At a certain point the "But we had a few good years" excuse burns out and it already did so awhile back. Sorry.

I agree that some people overexaggerate our climo. But you are doing the opposite. This isn't Florida bro. Sure "it happens" like once every 30 years. This is a record breaking four year snowless stretch. You can't in any way shape or form justify this as normal anymore than the weenies can justify 20-30 inch seasons as normal. BTW, how is your call for a colder/snowier pattern working out? I seem to remember you attacking PSU for his negative outlook on this winter, which is now presenting itself perfectly.

LMAO! What are you on about? For DC, of the 10 winters in the 80's 7 had double digit snowfall. One had over 30 inches. 4 Had over 20 inches. We have .6 inches this year, no not 6 inches ….6 Trying to justify a historically terrible period is odd.

The "this is normal" posts in the LR thread are annoying. Nope having only .6 inches of snow to show for Dec and January is not normal. Nor is having only 8% of our climo for this time period. People are nuts. Sure on any given day or any given week, chances of a snowstorm are not high. But Going prime climo with northing to show for it, is not ordinary.

Okay, fair enough. I hope those stats work in our favor. But I have my doubts. Thanks for the information!

Well, let me say, I think there is more to it than the numbers. A 2-4 inch cold snow that sticks around is worth way more than a 10 inch isolated numbers padded wet storm that doesn't stick to the street and is gone fairly quickly. (BTW we only got 4 inches from that January storm, I know I am switching locations, but it shows how isolated it was). I tend to discount last year because of the above...….now you might say "but a lot of our storms are like that". True. But the reverse could also be the case, where DC only got 5 inches of snow the entire year but it was maybe a cold January snowfall....etc. As an example, 2001-2002 was a bad year, but the Jan 2002 storm, was a good storm in a bad winter, at least in NJ. Which made it better than the garbage we have now. 2004-2009 was a better period. Sure there were a couple dud years in a row. But the other years produced decent snowfall in the prime months (vs the March metlathons). 1997-2002 was better. 1990-1995 was bad, but still better. DC must have gotten screwed back then because as a kid I remember getting tons of snow in either 1993 or 1994 in New Jersey. In fact it was my first "snow on snow" experience. I remember we got like 6 inches of snow and a week later another 6 inches. This isn't a historically bad run for nothing. Its a bad run. We haven't had a good storm since the Blizzard. I'd have taken that dry slot numbers padded garbage and spread it out over all these years and have been 1000% happier. But the climate change impact on our snowfall Is interesting and not something I disagree with. Its unfortunate.

I am just convinced PSU likes to downplay snowfall norms. I am pretty sure others secretly agree. Its not a big deal.....but at a certain point we have to admit, this is not "normal", we are not "due for a bad year".