RevWarReenactor

Saturday: I hope I get 20 inches! Sunday: I hope I get 3-6 inches. Monday: I hope this storm misses Richmond. Tuesday: NAM, can you do me a favor and step yourself outside? You're irritating me.

How to lose 18 inches of snow in 24 hours: A retrospective

The trends have been terrible today, but it wouldn't take much of a shift to bring us right back to yesterday on the Euro. The heavy snows are only 50-100 miles from I-95. Its just going in the wrong direction.

I think if expectations are reset at 3-6 inches. Won't be disappointed. Will still be a nice little storm, and anything more is a bonus.

This had rug pull written all over it. Just based on climo. We get 18-24 foot snowstorms for all of I-95 like once every 20-30 years. The models have been pretty bad this year with drastic shifts at about 100 hours. I never bought any of it.

Latest guidance falls in line with the seasonal trend of everything south and east of the area. Delaware Beaches must be having a record run this year. What will this be the 3rd 12+ storm if this verifies?

Dover to Delaware beaches have consistently done better last decade. Odd that beach areas 100 miles to my south constantly beat I-95. Its been really odd. Its been awhile since we've had a storm where NW crew does good and the southern areas mix/rain.

Ended with 3.3 inches in Newark Delaware. More than I expected. Finally, not a bust. Seems areas just to the south didn't do quite as well. Like Havre De Grace. My guess is around 9pm we held on to that steadier band for a bit longer. Probably made the difference.

Its a mess. Guidance changed about 4 times today. The best was telework for the first 3 hours and then drive into the office. Seriously? They didn't want to put the word "telework" in writing. Which was hilarious. I don't care anymore. Whole thing is childish. Anyway 2.3 here in Newark Delaware. Overperforming. Going to beat Jan 6th easily at this rate. Which makes me happy. Next goal is will they plow (thats anything over 4 inches). I doubt we get there but it might be close.

This is our first RTO week. Telework revoked totally. No ad hoc. So now they are shooting themselves in the foot with this snow. Its funny. HRRR looks better. Im happy.

Yep. We go mid 30's tomorrow. Light precip. Anything falling before sunset won't stick to the streets, and will barely stick to the grass. We might start to get road stickage by nightfall but at that point how much precip have we burned off? Maybe the streets will get a dusting, that will melt off as soon as the snow stops. Thats my forecast anyway.

Not to be pessimistic, but we onlt got 2.4 here from the Jan 6th storm. This looks like a weaker of version of that, and in the last 10 years the best bet for this location is take NWS forecast and divide by 2. I am thinking 1-2 inches. Grassy surfaces only Baltimore/DC will do better. Maybe 3-4 inches there.

I don't think this is done trending north. Today's storm was way north of the models. Jan 6th had places in central PA get decent accumulations when models said they'd get nothing. What hasn't trended north this year?

Nice, yep. Only got 2.4 inches here from Jan 6th.

Yep, we haven't had a 6 inch snowstorm here since the Blizzard of 2016, and only 2 storms over 4 inches. Almost 10 years. Its truly amazing.

The LR thread is Deja Vu from last year. It will get good after Feb 20th! Trust me! Remember how that went last year.....LOL

Interesting! Thanks. Yep Iron Hill. Thats amazing how such small elevation changes can make a significant difference. But I've driven up there on marginal events and what it nothing for me, could be an inch for them.

Thanks! Makes sense. I am at pretty much the elevation you state. What stinks is there is a hill near me that is 350Ft. Its half a mile away. Im at the base of it. Even they get more snow.

There is an OT button for all of this. Not that it isn't important. But I feel like we need a thread where its not quite model discussion but its also not quite panic room. Afterall this isn't OT its the weather section of the MA forum.

Appreciate it. I can't really argue with what you are saying. Looks like the Blizzard of 2016 really shows your idea well. We got 8-12 inches in NCC. We got screwed relative to areas near us. This has been the case ever since. I think the MA area is a screw zone in general. As this year has shown, its pretty easy for Charleston SC to score, just get a REALLY cold airmass. Its really easy for Upstate NY/Vermont to score, just get a marginal airmass. But here? What do we need? Who knows!

If I got nothing else, Im left with a below climo snow total and a very high January heating bill. Typical. The 9 years of bad luck continues.

I guess im not sure what would cause my climo to be different than immediate areas. Such as Baltimore, DC, or even Philadelphia. Can't think of any. I give up! I don't mearue from the street. I measure from the grass, we have literally not had a 6 inch snowstorm since the Blizzard of 2016. Thats not climo. Thats bad luck. YOu are a great forecaster. But you definitely have some weird March fetish. Every March is going to be great, and the truth is, they rarely are. March snow is like begging for scraps after you missed the main meal.

I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th.

I am in Nassau Bahamas where its 85 degrees out and here I am tracking snow up in the MA for my return. GFS is disappointing. I paid $26.95 for the internet package to be disappointed.

Truly unreal how it can be 27 degrees outside and melting on contact.