RevWarReenactor

The GFS makes the hurricane and all its moisture literally disappear anywhere north of Southern VA. I've never quite seen anything like it.

Was tracking the Saturday system because of an outdoor event. Goes from deluge to zippo in 50 hours on the models. Reminds me of winter. Totally unreliable.

Remembering 10 yrs ago. Back when winter was a thing

too bad about mappy. Probably abusive and threatening behavior by someone here who got butthurt over a disciplinary action. it does go both ways though as I have seen certain mods abuse their position to talk to members like scum and then hide behind their position.

Exactly! Well said!

Thats fair. I have no issue with discussion on what might have happened or maybe they don't know. The problem I have is when METS fall into the JB trap of making overhyped declarative statements like "its going to get cold" "Only a could more weeks until an epic pattern" "things look amazing" etc. They stick to their guns so hard that some belittle the naysayers (like me) who turned out to be 100% correct. We are not even allowed to panic in the panic room, we are just being too "negative" when again, we were 100% correct. Then when so called "Epic" pattern doesn't materialize. They simply move on. Nothing to see here! It was just an "idea" and not a forecast! Like you seriously believed us LOL? Who even looks at LR forecasts anyway? Who even trusts that? Then the cherry on top is claiming that they are rooted in "science" when the entire LR thread the last few weeks was essentially a story of fiction.

We spent weeks and weeks posting tons of maps and analysis about a late Feb “epic” pattern that was totally fictional. Not only was it fictional; but we are literally in the 50’s and 60’s with rain into Canada. I’m just not seeing any science behind any of this. I am also not seeing much “ Mea culpa” and pause being given into how wrong it at was and learning from it to forecast better in the future. That frustrates me how Mets are just so wrong and move on like they didn’t make major mistakes..

It’s weird how the long range guidance gets it so wrong. Not only was there no “”epic pattern” as advertised. But temps are in the 50’s and 60’s. Essentially a torch. You might need to go to the north Pole for snow. It’s not even close. In my opinion: It should make people question the validity and point of LR tracking. Really we had one good week this year and it was basically just a broken clock being right twice a day.

There is another window in Mid to late March. Its coming guys. Epic pattern change. Just need patience.

The bay hurts you. Not much better here…. But I swear I hit the hatem bridge and the thermometer on my car often jumps 2 degrees on winter mornings. Common occurrence.

Might have been okay. If it stuck to the street. Once again another half a storm with no street stickage. This never use to be something so consistent. Yawn.

Why does nws still have this up? Do they enjoy humiliation? Anyway another event that pood the bed. I’m seriously starting to think we never see winter here again to any great degree

I wake up. Hrrr was right and maybe aggressive. As expected marginal temps, melting, bad precip orientation. 33 degrees a dusting in grass. G’night

I think you all need to be careful on some of those radar images a lot of those radars overhype precip and show virga. This one below is rather good I find and it sadly is very hrrr esk i find the precip orientation to be problematic. Just look at it! I find temps to be a problem for initial stickage in the cities. We will snow but there is no question in my mind that we significantly underperform nws totals.

Thanks you too….! I tend to agree on winter. This might be it. Bottomline is- it’s just not cold. This storm tonight is pure luck on timing and even then temps are iffy.