StormChazer

I'm here. Looks like a cold stretch coming up.

Today’s run still holding out.

I’m curious because I’m going to be in Broken Bow tomorrow through Sunday, and would love it if I saw some accumulating snow while in a cabin for the weekend. So here’s to hoping the nam is onto something haha.

Is the 00Z NAM out to lunch on this run of Friday’s snow potential?

NAM making things interesting on Thursday.

When the sleet first moved in this morning we had thunder and small hail with it as well. Unfortunately, up here in Owasso we’ve been on the northern fringe of all of this, so haven’t gotten much. But since I work in Broken Arrow where they’ve been getting sleet all day, today and tomorrow are work from home days!

22 and pretty steady freezing drizzle here in north Tulsa.

Yeah, freezing drizzle events always seem to creep up and catch everyone off guard. Part of that I think is because they are hard to forecast, but also highly impactful, Mets play it safe by not sounding the alarm since models don’t pick up well. But I’ll be interested to see this play out. Huge messy forecast, not much agreement on models and just heavily leaving on the euro seems to be the play by everyone right now.

Awfully quiet in here with some icy weather potentially starting as early as tomorrow. I think Sunday might catch a lot of people off guard with freezing drizzle.

It is looking like some freezing drizzle may impact the area on Sunday. Models don't pick up on that great and those events can sneak up on you and coat the roads quick.

I’m supposed to fly out of Tulsa to Florida next week for work. My flight leaves at 12:09 Monday, and it’s safe to say that I could be cutting it VERY close, and who knows about my return flight on Thursday. I don’t really love the idea of leaving my wife and daughter behind in an ice storm, and I don’t want to miss it,so part of me hopes the ice moves in earlier Monday AM so my flight gets canceled, and we just push the trip back.

I think this image sums up us Tulsans feelings accurately. It's like the storm wanted to hurt our feelings specifically. I'm happy for everyone else though!

Nothing but rain in Tulsa while all other directions around us getting snow….I’ve had the rug swept out under my feet before, but this one stings a little more than others.

Still just rain here in Tulsa. Hoping this band from the south moving northward will be the push that brings the transition on.

Both metros in OK now under the Winter Storm Warning. Soon we can start tracking the rain/snow line to see how models have been handling it.

Am I allowed to ignore it because I don't like it?

TSA went all out for NE Arkansas, still going conservative on Tulsa area.

Euro had a massive northern shift with some totals. 06Z Run Latest 12Z Run.

Slight northern jog on GFS, NAM and Icon, might be enough to push Tulsa county into a Winter Storm Watch. Canadian and the long range 12Z HRRR keeping that heaviest snow to the south. Euro still playing catch up with the others so I'm not considering it as heavily as the others right now(has been an outlier almost this entire time so far).

Tulsa finally jumping on board with the higher amounts in most places.

This is probably my inexperience showing through, as obviously the NWS meteorologists and even news meteorologists know more than me. But it seems like most of them are calling for just 1-2 inches of snow. I know there will be initial melting from ground temps, onset rain that will cut down potential totals and the fact that it’ll be above 32, so additional melting. But 1-2(or in NWS Tulsa’s case less than an inch of snow) just seems too low to me. I’m not saying that 6 inches should be plastered everywhere but widespread 3-4 doesn’t seem crazy to me. But again, I’m both an amateur and a biased snow lover, so I don’t have the best take on these.

I’m ok with the NAM so far, but can’t focus too much that far out on it, it’ll change a lot until about hour 60. it’s all about the storm track and temps(duh). As the models project a further south track, you wind up with less snow totals across the board except for the small core of the low where someone gets hammered. The further north we go, the cooler the air and better chances of prolonged and widespread snow. Any delay of the system at this point also increases higher snow odds as it seems pretty likely that after 6PM Tuesday, temps get low enough and the 540 line pushes east. I still genuinely think someone is going to push getting a foot of snow where that deformation band sets up as the low passes through, but will that be Davis, OK? Out in the higher terrain of the Ozarks? Wichita Falls? Even a 20 mile track difference considerably changes the forecast due to the type of set up. I currently am thinking 4 inches for Tulsa, and that will still make me very happy.

With temperature being one of the main concerns, the 12Z NAM has it plenty cold in the areas where it’s snowing. Didn’t love the southern shift of the track overnight, makes me miss out on a lot here in north Tulsa county. But the morning gfs run nudged back North a touch, so hoping for just a couple more nudges and the euro to go back as well.

18Z GFS sticking to it's 12Z run.

Probability of snow exceeding 6 inches.