StormChazer

This run of the GFS looks pretty much identical to this afternoon's run on the Canadian. After the front passes through, a large area of light snow looks to move in Sun night/Mon morning.

I hear you. There was that one storm that brought a good snow to Southeast Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Missouri. So every once in a while this season it has panned out. So fingers crossed.

And just like that the GFS and Canadian go playing with my heart. GFS shows Northeast OK getting a couple inches on Sunday, Candian on Monday. Wonder how the Euro will feel about it. Won't surprise me if the Euro stands its ground like it has with this upcoming system(and been right about so far), and then the other come in line with in the next couple days. That being said, for a system 6-7 days out, I'm surprised to see the two move back into a wetter solution for OK, that hasn't been the pattern this winter. It's just 1 run though. I'm curious what the Euro will say, and then see if there's consistency.

Canadian and GFS showing some possible snow in NE OK/NW AR/SW MO.

I wouldn't get too discouraged right now, it's still 8-10 days out, I'm more comfortable being outside the bullseye, than in it at the moment. I'm still optimistic about this one(maybe foolishly so, but I'm a glass half full kinda guy). One thing is for sure, we need moisture, this drought it getting irritating.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. I'm pretty sure this is the same system it was showing earlier, just bumped back a couple days.

GFS GEM EURO I know I'm grasping at straws here, but one of these is bound to pan out, so let's cross our fingers with this one, at least there's a consensus.

I've had to just step back the last week. I tell myself I won't look at the models until I hear the NWS mention something in a forecast discussion, but as a weather enthusiast it's pretty impossible for me to not look at new model runs, lol. So here's to hoping that storm around the 1st does something for us.....but man, we can't buy a a few inches to save our lives right now. That's OK, history is on our side! We are due!

Loving the 06z GFS right now, haha. The Canadian and Euro are picking up on this as well. The Canadian has it further north and faster(so not as heavy rates as we see here on the GFS), and the Euro has it fly up into Wisconsin before it get's organized. But, all three agree on a storm system with cold air on the weekend of Fri the 26th. Still, 8-10 days out.

Very interesting thoughts! I've never had snow stick around more than a few days, maybe 4-5 at the most(ice storm a few years back in the DFW area), I was however in Dallas when we got 12 inches in under 24 hours(Feb 11th, 2010), which, for Dallas, is very impressive. But, it didn't stick around for more than a week. I suppose it's all about perspective and experience. Kinda like when I was a kid and I got into trouble, every once in a while, I got to pick my punishment, get a spanking, or be grounded from something for a week. I chose the flash in the pan option then for the negative, and I'll choose it now for the positive! Haha Oh, here's a snowfall graphic on the Dallas storm for anyone who cares at seeing those sorts of things.

History certainly backs their thoughts too, here's to hoping!

I have to say, if it's between those two options, I'd rather get 8 inches that melt off in 3 days than 3 inches that stick around for a week, but then again, I'm from Dallas, and heavy dumpings followed by quick melts are pretty much all I've ever known. Dilly Dilly!

If we look at months since 1950 where Tulsa received heavy snowfall events, here are the results by month. 1950-2017 10+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 2 Jan: 3 Feb: 3 Mar: 4 April: 0 8+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 4 Jan: 4 Feb: 3 Mar: 7 April: 0 6+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 7 Jan: 9 Feb: 6 Mar: 10 April: 0 So, with that knowledge, March produces more heavy snowfall events than any other month for Tulsa. Just found this to be a very interesting stat. If Feb doesn't produce, you can bet I'll be hugging this statistic tightly.

Thanks for all the positive feedback. Yeah, model watching can get so draining after a while, and for someone like me who has a tough time at taking models past a few days worth a grain of salt, I can't help but get my hopes up. That all being said, February and March actually seem to be the most frequent producers of high snowfall according to Tulsa's records, with March particularly throwing out some pretty high numbers. I've got to think that happens when the spring pattern begins to take shape and moisture becomes plentiful, so any cold air shot gives a storm plenty of QPF to work with. Right now, all this cold air is pushing so deep that the atmosphere has been starved of moisture, hence why we keep seeing south TX and the gulf coast throwing out WSW. When the dead of winter begins to retreat some, I think that's when we see our best shot. This weekend is shaping up to look more like a late March pattern with thunderstorms in the forecast, hopefully this bodes well for the coming weeks and we get an extremely juicy storm slam through the area.

Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping. The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913. The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937. The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944. And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa.

I've been crunching the numbers for Tulsa, OK to see what the 5 year totals have been since 1900 to give some of us hope that history is on our side. Keep in mind these are YEARLY totals, not SEASONAL. 1900-1904: 14.9 inches 1905-1909: 46.9 inches 1910-1914: 22.7 inches 1915-1919: 47.5 inches 1920-1924: 58.1 inches 1925-1929: 40.6 inches 1930-1934: 27.5 inches 1935-1939: 27.5 inches 1940-1944: 42.1 inches 1945-1949: 51.8 nches 1950-1954: 45.0 inches 1955-1959: 51.3 inches 1960-1964: 48.9 inches 1965-1969: 48.4 inches 1970-1974: 47.4 inches 1975-1979: 48.8 inches 1980-1984: 30.6 inches 1985-1989: 65.0 inches 1990-1994: 33.8 inches 1995-1999: 36.1 inches 2000-2004: 62.3 inches 2005-2009: 47.6 inches 2010-2014: 61.7 inches 2015-2017: 11.8 inches This averages out to 43.76 inches every 5 years, as you can see, we've been above that average since 2000, where we hit a high 62.3 inches for that 5 year period. We are currently at 11.8 inches in our 3 years(6.6 of these inches came in 2015), so for us to hit the average we need to get 31.96 inches this year and 2019 combined. We average 8.62 inches a year, so if history is on our side, and we can obtain average, then we are in for a great 2 years, but more likely, we end up below average for this 5 year period, which I think we've been spoiled the last 15 years with above average snowfall(years that I was living in TX). But I'm going to look on the bright side. While analyzing all these years, it is clear that each winter is unique, the data I'm seeing, it's clear that every 3 ish years there is a well above average year that doubles or even triples the normal amount, and with 3 years below average now, I think we are due either in the next 2 months, or the end of 2018 for a bomb that compensates for these sad numbers. I have every year's totals here for anyone interested. Hope this brightens some outlooks! We are due, history is on our side!

Pardon me, I actually found more updated numbers going further back. Only once since 1900 has it snowed less than 3 inches 3 years in a row, and that was... 1910: Trace 1911: 0.8 1912: 1.9 They broke that drought in 1913 with 18.2 inches that year

If this season doesn't produce anymore snow, it will be the first time since they started keeping records in Tulsa(1950's) that 3 consecutive seasons see 3 inches or less of snow. Just a fun fact, haha.

Yup. It doesn't help that you know all this cold air is being wasted. If the patterns were in our favor, this had the potential to be a record breaking season.

What's worse, I moved here from Dallas, and this is my 3rd winter up here now...which have all been virtually fruitless. I thought when I moved 4 hours north I'd get a lot more! Haha. But you are right, there are a lot of people who are happy today and I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade...but the weather enthusiast in me is crying. Just one, 3+ incher and I'll be satisfied until next winter.

Yup...It's infuriating to to see that heavy band set up so close to us, and then see it's going to form to our south as well...it's like a sick joke.

Model running is hard on the emotions, haha. I can't help but daydream when I see one project a huge snowstorm for me, only to have it completely absent the next day...

Yup, here's to hoping this run of the GFS leans towards the last EURO run for next Thursday. The GFS also had quite the system moving in from the west for next weekend, lets see if it's still there this run!

That's the thing about this track, any shift could make someone go from nothing to a whole lotta something, really quick.

I'm seeing a little bit more of the models suggesting some light snow on the back end of the storm as it moves off to the NE and creates quite an event for Ohio Valley region, thinking St. Louis might be in an icy situation. I'm starting to look ahead to the 16th, looks like all the major models agree there will be a storm system moving through the region at the time. I think that's our next shot.