StormChazer

Here are the last 4 runs of the Euro. I'm not going to get caught up on amounts(although this latest run surprised me), but the trend is pretty undeniable. Checking all 50 members as well, paints an interesting picture. Only 10 members showed a scenario where noone gets in on more than 2-3 inches of snow, and even more surprisingly, 27 of the members showed a scenario where someone gets in on 4-6 inches, and 22 showed 6-8 inches, I could go higher but I'm digressing. It's actually more members than this, but I'm trying to keep this to OK/TX/NW AR/S KS/SW MO. Point of all this rambling is that the Euro has definitely been trending towards a more significant and warning criteria storm next week. After today's severe weather threat is over, I suspect the NWS and the local meteorologists will start talking more about it. I'm sure here in about 2 days we'll start to get the over hyping posts on social media using the most intense member possible. On the complete opposite side of things, the GFS has decided it doesn't know what it's doing. After being fairly agreeable with the Euro yesterday, I'm not going to say it's gone out to lunch, but I can't picture the scenario it's trying to depict....the precip timing, temp gradient/locations, the whole thing just looks awkward and climatologically(sp?) speaking, I'm not seeing how that pans out. But, it could know something the Euro doesn't, We'll see what the trends are today.

I'll have what this member is having...2 feet of snow? Not in my wildest dreams! Haha. Joking aside, we are just about 1 week out now from the onset of this storm. It's looking fairly likely someone is going to be getting in on some good snow(and possibly ice), it now comes down to where that 32 degree line sets up and how much moisture is with it. The euro is trending a bit colder now, we'll see what the 18Z GFS thinks. I think this storm is going to make someone a happy camper, but then again, 1 week is an eternity in meteorology.

Yeah, for NE OK, I'd say 85% of the models show snow, and of those models ~50% of them show 4+ inches, I know getting caught up on actual amounts is trivial, but it shows a trend that depicts at least a moderate amount, question is, moderate what? I didn't even think about the recent snowpack making it possibly easier for the cold air to spread. It's a pretty cool week leading up to next weekend too, so ground temps won't be near as warm as some events in the past where essentially the first few hours of frozen precip are negligible. I'll see what the latest Euro says shortly, see if that clears or muddles things up at all.

Not half bad agreement for something 8-10 days out.

Been watching Dec 7-9 pretty closely now. Both the Euro and GFS seem to agree we are getting a robust system moving through OK.AR.MO.KS. They also seem to indicate this may be an ice event. Models don't usually handle shallow cold air very well, and the freezing line tends to trend further south than they suggest, so this should be interesting. The GFS keeps flip flopping, one run it keeps the cold air up in Nebraska, the next brings it back down into OK. Last nights 00Z Euro run looks very similar to today's 12z GFS, will be interested to see what the 12Z Euro says. Either way, this looks as of right now, to be our first real shot at a decent winter storm, but still waaaay too early to get our hopes up(but I am anyway).

I'm (foolishly) watching Dec 3/4 intently to see if we can't squeeze out some measurable snowfall for NE OK. I need a winter storm warning, 1,362 days is just far too long for any snow lover to go without. It really is crazy when you stare at this map at just how unlucky NE OK/SW MO has been.... But I firmly think this is the year to break the streak, with the pattern that is setting up, I feel we will see a 5+ inch storm this December, then a lull in January and then another hefty snow/ice storm in February. The last 3-4 runs of the GFS has shown the snow line move northward, but the Euro is just now finally realizing there is something going on that day, and it shows a much further south(and dry) solution, so I'm interested to see what the 12z runs look like today.

If I’m not mistaken, with the KC office issuing winter storm warnings, that breaks a long drought does it not? I remember looking at a graphic posted last year of how many days it had been since a winter storm warning had been issued. Anyone know where to find that? Feeling good about this year being the year Tulsa gets in on some appreciable snow.

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php Honest question, should we be concerned here in Tulsa? That's a very large band of heavy precip headed our way and it's still 27 degrees here in Tulsa. Does the High res tend to overdo amounts?

1/2 inch of freezing rain in Tulsa as evening rush hour is out would be a nightmare. The HRRR just keep pumping up Tulsa's numbers.

I've been watching the HRRR ice totals slowly creep closer and higher in the Tulsa area, going to be a fine line(as usual).

Brand new GFS is painting a dangerous picture for Tulsa and SW Missouri....

Officially 32 in Tulsa now, still plenty more precip headed our way, plus the NAM and HRR indicating a decent surge of moisture for Wed night/Thurs morning.

Doesn't surprise me, and with another shield of precip headed that way with temps in the mid twenties, I find it hard to believe we won't see some ice storm warnings issued.

I'm starting to think we may get some ice storm warnings issued to the NW of Tulsa Metro area. Down in DFW they extended their flood watch to the west because their expecting that heavier precip to shift some to the west, if that plays out, that area of precip will make its way up to NE Oklahoma after the freezing temps are in place. Just my two cents.

Just rain here in Tulsa still, but the temp is steadily dropping, an interesting forecast to be sure. Keep those updates coming!

Wow, this is a sharp a front as you'll see. 30 degree difference here in Tulsa and Skiatook....that's a short drive. Things are going to get interesting.

The Nam just out down a foot of sleet here in the Tulsa area. Obviously that would never happen, but even a fourth of that would turn the roads into an ice skating rink.

This is what Tulsa NWS had to say about that today. Granted, it doesn't show as much ice here as it does in KS and MO, it still shows a few hours of moderate sleet/Frz Rain. "A cold front will move across the area late Monday night and Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous near and behind the front. Some models indicate the potential for temperatures to fall low enough for some freezing rain or sleet on the back side of the precipitation shield late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confidence is low in this however, so will not mention wintry precipitation at this time."

NWS in Tulsa has a great take for the next 10 or so days on the changing pattern. The ongoing pattern change will feature more troughing over the western U.S. and this looks to persist through at least early next week. This is a departure from what has been observed for much of the winter season and is likely to a more active flow regime. An initial influence of this unsettled pattern is the forecast Friday night into Saturday with latest data showing a more substantial post frontal precip band developing and passing mainly across southern portions of the forecast area. Current forecast will keep temps warm enough for all liquid but this time frame will need to be followed. Precip chances continue into early next week with moderating temps ahead of the next cold front possibly arriving toward the end of this forecast period. The pattern of troughing to our west and a reinforcing push of colder air early next week will be a focus for upcoming forecasts. Hopefully a sign that our winter precip drought has a better chance of coming to an end!

Nice pics, we had the ever so slightest glaze here in the Tulsa area over the weekend. Some slick spots on Saturday night was the worst it got. So since every model shows a great storm until about 5 days out and then squashes it, do we have a different change in pattern coming up that might let me be a little more hopeful? Because I see a few ice storms on the horizon on the models but figure there's no point to even hope that we may see something if the overall upper pattern is the same.

06Z on February 11th(the run that preceded the massive ice storm run in OK/TX. And here is today's 12Z run, which looks almost identical. I don't expect to see another run like Sunday's 12Z run, but it has slowly trended closer to it the past few runs.

I will say, the GFS has slowly been trending back north after its initial jump away from that ice storm in Oklahoma and Texas.

Well, I won't lie. This potential storm next weekend certainly has the look of the kind of storm that gives Oklahoma snow, unlike all the other storms with winter that gain steam just east of here. It's just refreshing to see a different setup for once.

Just poking in here to drool over the 12Z GFS. Now back to our scheduled disappointment XD

I give up. See you guys in the spring barring some sort of miracle this pattern stops.