StormChazer

I still have hope in Tulsa, but man, if I live in West OK I'm pretty upset right now.

Thanks for the write up. Is there a model that excels at determining shortwave strength? Because the NAM just kept on NAMing, but I’m not sure who the favored model is in this scenario. I also read the Storm is lagging behind out at sea some, how might that affect us? Wouldn’t the colder air be more firmly in place if the storm is dejayed until Sat evening?

I feel like for them to put this graphic out after last nights runs means they aren’t confident in that set of runs, but idk.

Soooo, we gonna talk about that euro run? Because that just threw a wrench into everything. But, need to see the ensembles, may just be a goofy run.

Tossed out in terms of how poorly it was handling the cold air. As it catches up to the Euro and NAM it gets more viable.

As far out as the 3K goes so far.

This GFS run should be all TSA needs to issue the winter storm watch. I'm betting one within the next couple hours.

Pretty surprised Tulsa hasn't issued the watch yet....and this evening's NAM run is going to be a very important one as it'll have more information to go off of.

Where did you find this???

This what you're trying to upload?

If you watch the last few frames, the snow shield kinda starts to...stay still?

And for the record, the system is still ongoing......

The NAM has lost it's mind.....

New Euro. Pretty much the same setup with just slightly adjusted amounts, lowers Tulsa snowfall by 1 inch, but sets up an even heavier band just to the north, little things like this aren't something to be analyzed super hard on a long range model, so in my mind a 4-6 inch scenario is still likely for Tulsa as of right now.

Was asking that myself haha

Looks like they've updated it and upped the totals.

12z GFS just looks horrid. It does seem like all the major models agree that NW of OKC will get a good helping of snow, but then the GFS just looks bad, but that makes sense since it handles cold air so poorly.

Looks like about a dozen models give central AR a good snow, another 12 have the Little Rock area RIGHT on that line of no snow to heavy snow, and the remaining 26 don't look too promising.

Is it finally our turn? Are we going to break out of this snowless pattern with a vengeance? I sure hope so... Nice research!

I've been analyzing the Euro runs for a couple days now, here is my findings from last night in regards to how the Tulsa metro is affected. 10 members show 0-2 inches of snow 6 near misses or right on the steep snow gradient 34 members show heavy snow(I'm defining "heavy" as 4+ inches) 20% little to nothing 12% near misses or right on the steep snow gradient 68% Winter storm warning criteria So there has definitely been a trend, each run of the Euro is putting more and more members with a large swath of Oklahoma getting a good amount of snow.

Here's the euro. I should note that there are quite a few ensembles that show numbers near or at what the NAM is showing.

12Z NAM, these totals are with the storm still not out of the area just yet. We all know the NAM totals are going to be exaggerated this far out, but it corroborates with the Euro pretty well. I wonder when the GFS is going to get on board(if ever).

Aside from it being 1300+ days since a winter storm warning, it’s also been 691 days since issuing a winter storm watch. They probably forgot how. Joking aside, I’m sure it has to just do with timing, OKC area will get in on it probably 3-6 hours before Tulsa, so I’m betting Tulsa issues watches this afternoon.

This is looking like an ever colder nam run I think.

I’m with you! Haha I think maybe 48? Because they upgrade to warning usually 24 hours out. I think?.....