StormChazer

Latest Euro run.

I'll take member 3 please. But euro and nam seem to slow it down some, making it more of a Thursday event than a Wednesday evening. we will see.

GFS is now in agreement with euro and nam, drops 7+ inches in NE OK, I’m into Missouri and Arkansas.

For all that is good in this world. I hope the euro is onto something...because this Tulsan needs snow BAD.

NAM, Euro and Icon(fwiw)all show a snow event setting up for North Texas up into Oklahoma and Arkansas on Wednesday into Thursday. The gfs has ever so slightly trended north the last couple runs, but not anything close to what the nam and euro are showing. This could be an interesting one that’s shaping up just a few days out(my favorite!).

Hoping based on the euro we could squeeze out 3 inches in Tulsa with this upcoming storm. That would be nice.

Something may be lurking around the new year.

I saw that, and that's not even factoring snowfall for the next system that runs through right afterward....IF ONLY.

I don't think we are destined for the same pattern this year. I want to say December was predicted to be a bit warmer and not as favored for winter weather as Nov and then subsequently Jan/Feb. But I can't remember where I had heard that. Still, if you think about it, we had the small snow event in Nov, and then the very near miss a couple weeks ago, which honestly, the last couple years I don't remember near misses so much as just the storm not getting it's act together until it was in east MO and then into the OH valley, or the storms would go waaaayyyy south giving the gulf coast snow. This pattern doesn't feel the same to me, but that's just my opinion. It looks like sometime around the new year, give or take a day or two, we might have our next shot at something wintry. So here's to hoping!

Certainly the best way to avoid disappointment! Lol

When should we start talking seriously about snow chances on Thurs/Fri? Gfs and nam seem to think this thing can drop a decent amount of snow somewhere in OK.

And it'll melt off by the afternoon, but while it falls it'll be a headache.

Long range NAM picking up on it a little bit as well. GFS and NAM have the low in similar places.

If only...Hahah. GFS was kinda right last time though XD, I'll believe it if it's within 20 hours....

I will say this much, the HRRR is showing a trend after each run of inching the precip shied north. They also said up to 1-2 inches of sleet or snow. 1 inch of sleet would wreck the roads.

I'm not going to lie, this confuses me.....there's not a single model projecting snow or even much of any precipitation for that matter...

So....do we owe the GFS an apology?

NAM3K and HRRR are the only things at this point giving me any lasting hope.

NAM is running, let's see the prognosis.

You would think, but this one felt like such a slam dunk to get a least 3 inches. To have it disappear before our very eyes just 48 hours out is the worst. I'm not writing it off yet, the sampled data could turn things around for us, but it's definitely not looking great right now.

So the way I see it, is the storm will be sampled this evening, so perhaps the 00Z runs will contain sampled information, if not, the 6Z and 12Z tomorrow will. If those don't change the trend that's going on, then I'm sticking a fork in this and developing some trust issues for the next few weeks. Good news out of all of this, is this is early in the season to be getting chances for awesome snowstorms(even if they don't pan out), so we still have 3 more months of this to go.

The storm system won’t be over land until this evening is my understanding.

My powers of deduction and line drawing would like to think that 4-6 inch band continues up into the Tulsa metro...

I've spoken to two local TV mets today and both seem pretty un-wavered by the runs last night/this morning. Seem to still think Tulsa gets in on somewhere between 3-6 inches, they expect models will jog back north a little bit, so I guess we'll wait and see if they're right.

This is such a tricky forecast(as is almost all winter events here in Oklahoma). I actually think Tulsa is still in a good spot for a solid 5 inches, partially because I'm an eternal optimist but this snow line is still going to move around some the next 24-36 hours. My personal opinion is that last night/this morning is the southern jog, and then soon it'll lift back north ever so slightly, which I think puts OKC and Tulsa right in the prime spot for a good snow. Again, there's alot of factors that will go into this, and if all the models keep pushing south, we're going to find ourselves with only an inch or so, but based on what the NAM usually does, which is pinball up and down until in settles in the middle, I think we are still in a good position for now.