StormChazer

Beat me to the punch on the GFS! For better or worse, I'm definitely not hearing much about this storm from local news outlets, and we're 24 hours out. I feel like this has the potential to drop 2-3 inches of snow/sleet in the Tulsa metro. But there's a BIG difference between 2 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet.

When I saw that map I just laughed...what a cluster....lol. Like I said earlier, 1/2 inch of sleet is more than enough to turn the roads into havoc; I'm especially worried about the evening rush hour in the Tulsa metro. Here is the 06Z GFS, still aligning with last night's 0Z GFS and then here is the 12Z NAM. Definitely some agreement in these two

A follow up to that last post. That picture of the road is just hard, slick ice with ZERO give. A week to remember!

The latest gfs bringing the heat on snow/sleet just south of Tulsa. The heavier precipitation is in eastern OK/western AR, if the cold air is stubborn enough and doesn’t recede(as these shallow systems tend to be resistant to the warm air winning out like the models depict) then I think there’s a real possibility of a small swath of moderate snow or sleet combo in said area. I’m concerned on how much of this falls as sleet. I need to check the soundings. Several years ago when I lived in Dallas(Denton to be exact) we got FIVE inches of sleet....it shut the city down for about 4 days straight because the sheer amount of ice on the roadways was insane. They called it the cobblestone ice event. When cars would travel on the thick sleet that first day, it carved out inconsistent tracks in the road, and then it refroze each night to this extremely pot hole, bumpy, slick, HARD sheet of ice that made driving literally impossible. Crazy times. All that to say, is half an inch of sleet is enough to turn the roads into an ice skating rink, so I’m curious to see if that’s going to pose a threat in this or not.

Last ones I promise!! These two are from 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Fun fact, I moved to Tulsa I’m the spring of 2015, so all I’ve known since I’ve moved here is a snowless land...

Thanks for the compliments! Here’s one more map of the 15-16 season.

Last two winters for your viewing pleasure....

Because I’m a masochist, here is the seasonal snowfall total as of today. I took the liberty of crudely editing it on my phone to erase any amounts of less than 2 inches of snow and added a black border. Really shows that snow hole. I marked OKC, Tulsa and Fayetteville with green dots.

I know it’s easy to feel that way, but look at Kansas City, they were in the same boat as us and then this year has finally broke their curse. It’ll happen but this won’t last forever.

I wouldn’t pay too terribly much to the long range nam. Give it until Monday morning.

These models are making me really nervous. Every single one has Tulsa RIGHT on the line. I know models don’t handle shallow air well, so my hope is that they’re underdoing it right now but I swear if it’s 33-34 and raining on Tuesday while 30 miles west it’s snowing I’m going to officially admit that the snow gods hate NE OK. That being said, if they are underdoing the cold air, then that honestly sets Tulsa up for an ice storm, which to be honest, at this point, my winter weather starved self would welcome.

Latest GFS looking similar to Euro

Yeah, I must say this is the last storm of the season that I'm going to follow or feel any excitement leading up to it. If this churns out nothing for us, then unless something is a day out I'm going to need to recharge until next winter. That being said, here's the EURO. Interestingly enough, it keep Tulsa JUST BARELY above freezing for a few hours during moderate precip, so if that snow line inches over 30 miles, Tulsa looks to get 4-6 inches. I know amounts are trivial and useless to get focused on this far out, but just worth noting.

12K and 3K NAM giving Tulsa a pretty hazardous morning commute(especially if that sleet verifies).

Sure does look like something is shaping up in the vicinity just 1 week out, not bad odds, I'll take it for now. Also a surprise 3-4 inches in Tulsa this Friday on the latest run of the GFS.

Euro and gfs both agree on a winter system coming through a week from tomorrow. I think this is the last storm I’ll give any hope into before calling it quits this winter. Now we wait.

Euro just isn't biting on this at all. Someone is going to cave this weekend though. Will it be the GFS or Euro. Furthermore, who has performed better this season so far? Also, NWS in Tulsa.

Well then...

Tulsa gets about 3-4 inches of sleet and 1/2 of freezing rain on the GFS 12Z

Shaping up to be another intense run of the GFS

I hear you! Hahaha. I've been watching this time frame for a bit now, FV3 has overall been pretty consistent at making up for the last 4 years with this storm. GFS has the moisture more to the south, but nudge that precip shield up 150 miles and itll look about the same as the FV3. Euro has a small icy area in the Arklatex area but that's about it. 7 days out and all major models say there's cold air and precip, some join them together for a great day, some don't, but the ingredients are there.

Keeping my eyes open at mid week next week(Feb 5-8). Looks like there's cold air and a storm swinging through the area around that time. GFS keeps it warm, Operational GFS throws snow and ice our way and the Euro is more northeast with the storm but does show some ice with snow way north.

I LOVE IT! Haha, I'm snow starved so this is is like a sip of water in the desert. Is it enough? No, but it's enough to get me by just a little longer. I just stood outside my work staring up at the sky letting the flakes hit me. It's sad that it's come down to this, but it is what you make of it. Euro and operational GFS pickin up on some snow in OK next Friday.

.DISCUSSION... A strong cold front is just about to enter the northwest corner of the forecast area, and this front will sweep southeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers or areas of light rain will continue to increase in coverage ahead of the front, with a transition to a light wintry mix by later this afternoon and evening as temperatures fall below freezing. Have sped up the transition, and expanded the potential area affected by winter weather based on current trends, following the NAM12 for temperature trends behind the front. Will hold off on any advisories at this point, and continue to monitor trends over the next few hours. Update on the way. TSA

HRRR 12z Edit: Just realized you posted a higher res of this, WeatherDemon.