StormChazer

Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa. I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth. “Just a quick note: The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.”

Different ratio algorithm than the basic 10:1

If we embrace the 10:1 ratio, that's 4 inches of snow potential in Tulsa on top of the ~2 inches the euro drops. If we can just get half of that freezing rain to verify as snow, then we've got an easy 4 inches on this model. But, half an inch of ice would equally be pretty awful for roads and powerlines/trees.

I don’t need a foot of snow. I want a foot, but I don’t need it. What I do need is a solid 3 inches, 4 if I can be so bold to ask.

This is Fri nighy/Sat morning timeframe, the more the cold air pushes in, the slower it will retreat which means a quicker onset of frozen precip Sat Night. OLD NEW Closer up.

Euro is coming in colder.

I've definitely been seeing this as our last shot this winter. The models have trended cooler and more qpf...so here's to hoping.

All Tulsa roads are now slick like OKC was earlier today.

Surprisingly quiet for the ice event that is beginning to unfold. OKC has got it bad right now. Tulsa will be next at this rate(29 and drizzling). I work in South Tulsa and the foliage, metal bars, etc outside are covered in that layer of ice now.

It's 30 here in Tulsa, 27-29 just north of Tulsa, and it's a wet mess out there right now with everything dripping from that misty drizzle. It's not getting any warmer today, I think in a couple hours we start seeing some real problems here.

Tulsa is below freezing now, 31 degrees, gonna have to watch that commute home I think, more than anything.

As of today, the only places in the entire country that have gone longer than us without a winter storm warning are as follows..... San Francisco, Lubbock,(Which surprises me as they got a foot of snow this season in 1 sitting...) and Lake Charles. I'm excluding Southern Florida and Puerto Rico as those places have never had a winter storm warning issued. Truly proof we are just in some very statistically unfortunate time period for us snow lovers.

So from what I'm seeing, looks to be an active 7-10 days. Freezing Rain/Sleet chance Wed PM-Thurs, some light post frontal snow over the weekend, and then a possible winter storm shaping up for early next week.

I will not get excited about next weekend. I will not get excited about next weekend. I will NOT get excited about next weekend.

Watching that March 2nd-4th time frame....I can’t help it. Every time I get burned, I say, “that’s it, I’m done for the season” but I can’t stop myself. Now I understand why people don’t leave abusive relationships...I get it, lol.

My new rule for the rest of this "winter" is unless we are issued a winter storm warning, I'm not going to speak of it.....ok,..unless the models are in 100% agreement for a monster, I'll talk about it then, lol.

If anyone was wondering who got it good yesterday.

Interesting. If that’s the thermal profile of the atmosphere now with light precipitation, I’d think that means when the heavier stuff moves in and drags the colder air down that we’d see all sleet and snow coming down moderately to heavy.

Lightest bit of rain, sleet and snow all simultaneously fell in south Tulsa. As I type it’s straight sleet now. If it’s like this now, curious if that means sleet later when it picks up.

It'll be good to watch those temps down there to see if they start dropping.

I'll be honest here. Tulsa NWS is doing the best they can, but I think they've conceded to the fact that this is nowcasting at this point. We truly just won't know until the precip arrives. It's hard to predict if it will rain hard enough to pull the colder air down and cool the column enough to counteract how warm it gets beforehand. I mean......how does one calculate the needed rate of rainfall necessary to counteract each degree? If it's 1 degree warmer than predicted, how much heavier does the precip need to be to cancel that out, etc? Kudos to TSA(and Norman) as this stuff is just a mess to predict. But until it starts falling and we see where that transition line is setting up, it's just all about using climatological norms, and and weather balloons/models to try and predict this, which in the 11th hour, is a crapshoot in this kind of set up(imo).

It's oddly therapeutic for me to do this. Here is the 12Z 3K NAM. I outlined the 2 inch contour and highlighted Tulsa county. If this verified this way, I would rage. What is it about this area? It feels supernatural at this point! lol

Models do seem to be going cooler tonight. Tulsa Mets/news still not impressed at all. Wonder if this will catch ppl off guard.

Local met Mike Collier in Tulsa not even remotely biting on this thing.

12Z Canadian FWIW.