StormChazer

12/5/19-00Z 0 1,4, 5, 6,16,17,20,25,27,29,30,32,36,37,43,45,48,50 TOTAL:18 <1 2,9,10,11,12,14,18,23,24,28,33,38,42,44,46 TOTAL:15 1-3 7,8,13,21,26,31,35,39,41 TOTAL:9 3+ 3,15,19,22,34,40,47,49 TOTAL:8

Oh my, the 06Z GFS decides to make us all happy happy snow deprived people.

Here's the noon update from today, definitely a large drop in significant snow potential. 0 3,4,8,10,13,15,16,18,19,20,21,28,29,34,35,36,37,38,39,41,45,48 TOTAL:22 <1 2,6,14,17,23,24,25,26,30,31,33,43,46,50 TOTAL:14 1-3 1,5,12,22,42,44,47 TOTAL:7 3+ 7,9,11,27,32,40,49 TOTAL:7

Ok, so I've decided to amend my parameters for the time being on my members analysis. This far out, it's silly to make Tulsa my pinpoint and not count a massive dumping of snow 60 miles away, so I'm going with a 100 mile radius of Tulsa, which roughly means the edge of that circumference hits OKC, Wichita, Fort Smith, Fayetteville and Joplin. So I'll be counting anything that falls in that area. Here are my results from the 00Z run last night. 0 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 17, 30, 31,36,38,40,41,47,48, TOTAL:14 <1 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 20, 22, 23, 29,34,35,37,43,45,49,50 TOTAL:16 1-3 16, 21, 24, 25, 32,44, TOTAL:6 3+ 1, 2, 3, 7, 14, 18, 19,26,27,28, 33,39,42,46, TOTAL:14 My next go at the 12Z run in a bit can be directly compared to this as opposed to my last one which only took Tulsa into account. It does seem overall that the Euro backs off an even happening on the 13th and pushes it more to the 16th.

Because I'm bored and have nothing better to do, I figured I'd over analyze the members, and will do so with each run to see if we can discover an obvious trend. The numbers are for the TULSA Metro, so if you're reading this from central Arkansas, it's not necessarily going to be spot on. Here are my findings... 12/3/19-12Z 0 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 18, 21,23, 24, 27, 29, 30, 31, 36, 37, 39, 41, 44, 46, 47, 48, 49 TOTAL:25 <1- 1, 8, 11, 14, 19, 25, 26, 32, 33, 34, 38, 40, 45, 50 TOTAL:14 1-3 2, 15, 17, 42 TOTAL:4 3+ 5, 16, 20, 22, 28, 35, 43, TOTAL:7

Latest Euro keeps a winter storm in our area in the 12th-13th time frame.

It's long range but we do have some agreement...for now.

ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE!

I need the models to give me something to drool over(even if it disappears 2 runs later), I need a fix!

Heavy sleet in downtown Tulsa.

Winter Weather Advisory just issued for Tulsa office area.

18Z GFS, more of the same.

We'll see what the Euro thinks shortly. Either way, COLLLDDDD incoming!!

Yeah, definitely not trying to take away the validity of the SW MO and NE AR members! You are all in the same boat as us!

Jan 11-12 It's a touch misleading since the Springfield area itself didn't experience much, but some of the northern counties of the forecast area saw 8-12 inches of snow, and then an ice issue to the SE.

Friendly reminder that the only forecast areas in the nation that have issued a winter storm warning longer ago than the Tulsa office is San Francisco,CA(understandable being the Pacific Coast), Lake Charles, LA(Also understandable as it's the gulf coast), and Lubbock, TX(although arguable they should have issued one last year when Lubbock received 12 inches of snowfall in a day). So when I saw law of averages means we are due, WE ARE DUE.

Hi everyone! Late to the party this year, got some flurries on Halloween Ever here in Tulsa, pretty crazy! I'm interested in Nov 11th, both the GFS and Euro have something small brewing for OK/AR/MO, looks like a 1-2 incher, but in early Nov, I'll take that! So far, a good way to kick off this winter. This just HAS to be the year! Law of averages.

Day 8 risk on the SPC. Don’t see that too often.

DISCUSSION... Shallow cold air remains firmly entrenched over the area, with low cloudiness remaining trapped below the inversion. While there may be a few breaks later this afternoon, for the most part the clouds will remain. As such, have lowered afternoon high temperatures several degrees.

34 in Tulsa right now, TSA was calling for 42 today, now lowered to 40. Only about 4 more hours left to heat up, and I'm not sure I see that happening.

12Z Euro bringing those higher totals a touch more south. I can get behind that.

All I'm asking for is 3 inches of snow here in Tulsa. I'll even take 2-2.5. This is the last shot of the winter and even though it will have been another under-performing season, going out on a high note like this would scratch that 4 year itch that has built up. Not to mention whatever falls we get to enjoy all day Sunday, Monday, and some of Tuesday.

Meteorologist Michael Armstrong out of OKC's thoughts on the upcoming storm. "Many areas have now gone 2 to 3 days below freezing. This will likely have some significant impacts on the upcoming winter storm for this weekend. In other words, greater impacts than earlier winter when warm days led into those."

TSA's thoughts. They do mention "heavy snow", just need those totals to shift about 40 miles south and I'll be ecstatic.

GFS and NAM have two VERY different opinions. That being said, the 12Z NAM is coming in a little colder, let's see how this run finishes up.