StormChazer

I don't think so. i can post the members on here if you'd like.

OK, here are the latest 5 Euro runs. I analyzed the snowfall amounts in a 100 mile radius of Tulsa. Here are my results. Looking for trends here. Number of members from each run are indicated below. 0 Inches. 18,8,6,3,2 Summary: looks more and more likely that a "no snow" option is out the door. Under 1 inch. 8,14,15,20,19 Summary: Better than nothing, but an underwhelming category. Goes up over recent runs, mainly converting "no snow" options to minimal snow(so still positive). 1-3 inches. 10,14,12,14,11 Summary: This is a broad category that I'll refine in future analysis, some of these are 1 inch across half the area, others are a solid 2 inches across everywhere. Regardless, this option remains pretty steady consisting of about 20%-25% of the members. 3+ inches, 14,14,17,13,18 Summary: Some of these are BOMBS, some are just a respectable swath of 3-4 inches, some give half the area a winter storm while leaving the other half out high and dry. Point is, this category has remained pretty steady throughout the last couple days. Last night's run brought it down to a low, but then the 6Z brought it up to a high(don't know if we can trust the 6z). If the 12Z this afternoon brings this category back to last night's, then we can throw out the 6Z. So it looks like someone within 100 mile radius of Tulsa is pretty much guaranteed to get snow, could be a trace, could be a good dumping. Time to wait for the 12Z Euro.

Yeah, inched south a decent amount, more towards the euro as opposed to the other way around. We'll see what the 12Z Euro shows. FWIW the 06Z euro members upped our snow chances from the 00Z Euro.

Anyone know if the 06Z and 18Z runs of the Euro are ever worth looking at? Because the 06Z runs on the Euro push the snow a touch south of last night's run which would benefit most all of us.

Took it out to the 17th so as not to be influenced by the monster afterwards.

So initial thoughts, the GFS backs off the first round of precip on Sun night, but the 2nd round is still in play, and technically comes a touch closer to Northern OK than the 12Z run, it's also looking at this point that the big winter storm on the 12Z run is still in play, but it hasn't gone that far yet.

I'll post the 12Z ensembles shortly. Not sure if there's any free public options.

Yeah, it looks like about a 60 mile wide band of the heaviest snow, outside of that, respectable to the north, quick decline south. A run I'd be more than happy with resolving.

Main precip shield is looking further south but not quite as strong as of hour 126. Edit: looking like more lagging juice with this run though, so might see similar totals.

I think the Euro is sticking to it's guns.

I know we are talking about 1 run on a system 9-10 days out, but this is pure eye candy. It can't even comprehend the sleet totals, lol. But the max says 7.5 inches of sleet. 2.64 inches of freezing rain 18 inches of snow.

Holy cow, could you even imagine? On the shortest day of the year no less.

If the Euro holds it's ground on the 12Z then I'll feel ok with this GFS run, bound to have fluctuations. If it backs off too, then I'll just go cry in a corner at work.

Here are my findings for the 00Z Euro run members. For S&G I ran the same deal on the 12Z afternoon run yesterday(see below). 00Z-12/10 0 3, 36,37,40,43,45,46,48, Total:8 <1 4*,9,12,13*,16,18,24,27,30*,32,34,35,39,49, Total:14 1-3 1,5,10,11,14,15*,23,26,29,38,41,42*,44*,50 Total:14 3+ 2,6,7,8,17,19,20,21,22,25,28,31,33,47 Total:14 * on edge of 3+ Here is the 21Z run from yesterday. 12Z-12/9/19 0 3,7,8,15,16,17,28,29,30,32,33,35,38,41,42,47,48,49 Total:18 <1 2,12,14,20,34,36,46,50 Total:8 1-3 1, 6,11,19,21,23,24,31,37,45, Total:10 3+ 4, 5,9,10,13,18,22,25,26,27,39,40,43,44, Total:14 As you can see, 10 members moved from a no-snow solution to snow, excited to see the noon run today.

Also this is the OP Euro run from last night(I was posting the controls earlier).

I'll do a breakdown of all 50 members here shortly.

It would appear the latest gfs joins in with a similar result.

Piggybacking off this to show the latest control. Trending more in our area.

00Z Euro Control Vs the latest 12Z run Control. Now we see if tonight continues the trend.

Friendly reminder that it's been 1,740 days since the Tulsa office issued a winter storm warning.

I saw that.....I think if something like that verified, I'd forgive the last 6 years of snow drought.

We shall watch this one with great interest.

Here is hour 258 QPF on the Euro, so it's showing something in that time frame as well.

That's how it tends to go. I gave up on over analyzing the Euro members until something more consistent and promising arises. BUT, I'd say looking over the next 2 weeks it seems like the cold air and moisture are there, all about timing.