StormChazer

Honestly, the ensembles look to me to be about the same....

Gut feeling this euro is going to go way north.

I believe tomorrow morning.

06Z GFS and 12Z GFS looking for the most part the same, with the exception of slightly lighter amounts in Western MO. 12Z NAM vs 06Z has the system wrap up in KS as opposed to OK, backs off of snowfall in OK to around about an inch, and bombs in KS. Overall, GFS holds steady after jumping more towards the Euro overnight(good to see the 12Z run of the GFS do that, as the 06Z and 18Z can be unreliable). Will see what the Euro does, I've got to think it's going to move the goal posts a little bit and go a touch north after shifting so far south(as models tend to do until they hit a nice in-between). All we need really is for the NAM to sync up with the Euro and we can start locking in a solution at this point in time. Also, if you take any stock in the 06Z Euro, it maintains the overnight's thinking of a southern solution.

GFS continues to cave to the Euro.

NAM starting to pick up on it now too.

Euro members emphatically support this OP run as well.

Holy cow!

Whoa, Euro is doubling down with a much southern run so far,

Canadian back tracked somewhat as well from the noon run that sent it up to KS

Keeps inching its way toward the euro. I really really need curious if the euro holds its ground this run.

I'm not saying we take the ICON seriously, but I will note that it has had a trend over the last few runs of going from a GFS solution to a Euro solution.

You can also see the difference in the placement as well, the main swath moves west quite considerably because it's wrapping up quicker. Keep that trend up and it won't be that far off the Euro.

Honestly, it's not much but I think it's a step in the right direction, if ever so small. Looks a touch more negatively tilted. 18Z 12Z

For those interested.

Euro Ensembles now MUCH more supportive of the OP.

I had all but talked myself down before the midnight run last night, accepting that I'd likely see the Euro change it's mind, and not to get all sad. But it stayed the course, now we wait and see if the noon run keeps the dream alive.

TSA's thought's on it via 3:00AM discussion this morning. "Now for the icing on the cake. Colder temperatures will filter into the region Friday night into Saturday behind the advancing front. Meanwhile, looking aloft, the aforementioned shortwave trough and embedded PV max are expected to track northeast right across the region on Saturday. The ECMWF has been very consistent in developing a wrap-around SW to NE oriented band of precipitation along the mid level deformation zone north of the PV max across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Cooling thermal profiles suggest a transition to a wintry mix across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before changing over to all snow by midday. Again, the ECMWF has a few tenths of an inch of qpf along the wrap-around band where the thermal profiles favor wintry precip. The GFS shows a similar idea but has the band farther north across eastern KS into MO. We are still several days away from the event and the exact details will likely change, but the possibility of impactful wintry weather Friday night into Saturday is gradually increasing."

Thinking maybe this GFS run is shifting towards the Euro. Edit: Just barely a touch south from the previous run, no real major difference. The GFS doesn't think the deformation band sets up in OK, it's further Northeast in MO.

I’m actually quite surprised by the latest Euro. Not only did it not go north to join the GFS, but it back tracked a touch from the previous run.

12Z GFS

Yeah, the biggest difference I see when looking at the radar sim is the way the shield gets its act together, and trying to determine where exactly that deformation band sets up is tough to do until 1-2 days out. So far, 5 days out, I'm loving what I'm seeing.

I know I know....I'm obsessing over the CANADIAN...but I need something to gush over until the Euro comes out in an hour. Decent Sleet.

Can I just lock in the Canadian please?