Silly to analyze models with extreme scrutiny 7-8 day out, but I'm gonna do it anyways.
Before the event, we(NE OK/SW MO/NW AR) are at or below freezing for about 18 hours, then the event starts, temps surge to upper 40's and low 50's, and then plummet back below freezing as it exits.
Shallow cold air on this one, models do poorly in these situations and always underestimate the cold air's ability to linger, and want to let the warm air come push it out.
In this scenario, cold air comes in, get's entrenched, then models want 30-40mph winds(gusts) from the south to come in and push it all out during the duration of the rain/snowfall only to have in come back in full force less than 24 hour after it gets pushed out.
I'm not really buying that. That warm air would just go right over the top of the shallow cold air in that scenario. Which sets us up for sleet/freezing rain.
But hey, I'm obsessing over 1 run of the euro 7 days out...so you know....there's that.