StormChazer

I used to be a lurker for a long time, but am so glad I started contributing and speaking up. It's a small community, but love getting to gush about weather to people who actually care! The ice was definitely under done. Up here in Owasso we got nearly .5 inch of ice on many surfaces. and I have to be extremely careful trying to get out of my neighborhood. That run, even though it's likely la la land, half of that isn't out of the realm of possibility.....we could legitimately give the 2011storm a run for it's money, should the current runs hold(a lot can happen in 4 days).

No text needed.

Mike and Aaron are my go-to's. Haven't ever given David Payne a watch. Will do now! Hope he's right!

12Z GFS Kuchera

Yeah, some, but not much.

06Z GFS compared to 00Z Euro Kuchera snow totals for early next week system.

Here are the members for just this Monday ish system. Keep in mind these are just showing the 10:1 ratio.

Oh Euro........ Standard 10:1 Kuchera.

Yeah, this is just downright silly. Not gonna happen, but still silly.

Yeah, drops another 3.5 inches in the normal 10:1 ratio, but 9 inches in Kuchera.

GFS staying with it. Lighter amounts, but still a nice 3 to 4 inches.

Yeah, this is a pretty awesome image here. This is the 50 euro members mean snowfall over the entire run. This is from 3 or 4 separate storm systems rolling through from late this weekend throughout next week. Normally a high average total like this is because there's a storm 1-2 days out and its got some good precip so all the members converge. But to see it this high because of a lengthy period of snow is more akin to the NE, not down here. Bring it on!

Canadian might be looking more GFS-ish at hour 90. But will know soon. Edit: Looks like a nudge towards the GFS, but still hasn't bought in on the solution.

FWIW the 12z NAM is looking similar to the GFS in terms of the upper air pattern. Will have to see what the new GFS is going to show.

Very lightly snowing here.

Side roads still iced up good here in Owasso. Will have to go measure to see how much.

We’ve gotten about .25 inches of ice up here in Owasso.

Kuchera amounts for S&G.

This one is going to be model porn.

Euro is 13 degrees too warm as of noon today.... Says it should be 36 in Tulsa...it's currently 23.

25 in Tulsa now, 20 in Skiatook just to the North. HRRR has caught onto the temps, although, technically even it's initializing 1 or 2 degrees warmer still. All 3 major models just can't sniff out the arctic air's staying power and "oozing" qualities here in the short term. Definitely not breaking 30 degrees today....I think we've reached the point where we aren't going to hit freezing again for quite some time.

Surely the models didn't predict the -31F in Nowata after the blizzard that Feb, and this air coming down is much colder than that one. I think there's some things the models just won't ever have a good handle on. A 15 in snowpack with this kind of cold air would definitely push lows into the negative teens and twenties. That's all IF this kind of run verified, which is getting way ahead of ourselves at the moment.

Kuchera drops insane amounts with that wave. Justifiably too, it's nearly 0 degrees while falling.

I guess it's useless for me to say "same" since whatever one of us has, the other does Truly a case of, whoever calls it first! lol But same.

The roads are just brutal this morning. Anyone going to work thinking it’ll be better once they get off are in for an unwelcome surprise.