StormChazer

RDPS is obliterating Tulsa.

This is really the battle going on for snow totals. Massive difference at noon Tuesday. The Euro is 11 degrees colder than the NAM. 2 days out from now, that's a pretty large discrepancy. The GFS sides with the NAM temps, the Canadian and ICON side with the EURO. I personally think when the Canadian and Euro are in agreement, it tends to be the outcome. I said it the other day, and I'll eat crowe if I'm wrong. But I think this airmass of pure arctic air is so strong at the various heights that it will keep sleet and Freezing rain well south of Tulsa. I think it'll be mostly snow the entire time and Tulsa and points north get 6-12. Just my weenie two cents.

Euro

Nice waking up to a winter storm watch. ”3-8 inches”. I guess that narrows it down huh?

Posting all the 0Z runs to get a consensus. Canadian, 14 inches at my house, yes, please. ICON Euro GFS

Quick guess would say we got about an inch here in Owasso. Very pretty & quiet. Visibility definitely went down.

I wouldn't take too much stock in the long range NAM that far out. Point in case, here is the 18Z run. Already moving those amounts south and higher.

Curious to see how far TUL takes their watches. Obviously far NE OK will get a watch, but do they include Tulsa, Rogers, etc?

I saw that. Seems he is leaning in favor of the GFS and believes the sleet will go pretty far north. I'm no met, but I know the Euro has been very consistent, so I'm siding with it(plus I like it more for me lol.). He also made it clear he's being conservative with his amounts in general across the board and expects to go up, so that's great for everyone here. Still....can't lock this in yet. EVERYTHING has to go PERFECT to get some of these high totals in this part of the country. One thing is off and it falls apart, so I'm still holding my breath for the next 24 hours.

Here is all 50 runs of the Euro averaged together. And this is based on a 10:1 ratio. Greater than 3 inches of snow(again, 10:1)

A definite southern shift on the Euro. Higher snow totals moved south in addition to moving the sleet and frz rain to the south as well.

Canadian 06Z Euro.

Not sure what to say....30 inches of snow???? No way that verifies but even if it's half of that. Sleet and freezing rain completely eats the snow totals in Tulsa & NW AR or else we'd be in the 6-10 range.

On another note. The NAM and HRR are beginning to show tonight’s system over performing. 2-4 inches on the NAM! 1-3 on the HRR.

I’m not sure I’m buying that it’s going to be 10 degrees and freezing rain in Tulsa on Tuesday. Maybe that’s the weather weenie in me, but that air mass seems too strong to be that shallow. We are 3 days out from the onset of this storm and it is still dumping some insane snowfall totals across people on this board…12-24 inches of snow is absolutely unbelievable(probably because it is) numbers Noon runs should tell us alot today.

I spy a blizzard on the Euro....

Latest Euro.

12Z Icon normal 10:1 snow ratios. You can practically double these numbers because it will be teens to possibly single digits while snowing.

Here was the 06Z Euro.

GFS just doesn't want to get on board yet on the location. Location being Tulsa. I don't need to see half this board get 6+ inches and we get a dusting. Let's see what the noon run says today.

Well well, look who is now in line with location.

Here are the kuckera totals of the big 3 from 12Z.

This was the last frame of the 06Z Euro run. Included kuchera snow totals. 8-10 inches for most of us with more snow to come. Will eagerly await the 12z EURO run. Would love to see the GFS shift SW to fall in line with the Canadian, Euro and Icon. If those other 3 hold, then it's likely the GFS will cave. Almost reaching blizzard criteria in a few areas.

Got some great Thunder sleet around 4:30AM this morning in Tulsa. Roads are ok for now, mostly it's slushy from the sleet. My concern is that by 5PM today, they are going to start hardening and become really slick. I'll try to upload an awesome video I got of the thundersleet. You don't see the flash because I just missed it, but I got the BOOM., It was within a mile of me and set off car alarms.

Potential road nightmare for Tulsa tomorrow morning, followed by another chance of winter weather this weekend and then all three models showign a robust winter storm next week. Lots of chances for winter weather lovers!