StormChazer

It does appear that a band is beginning to develope north of Tulsa and will sag southward.

You know, it takes a PERFECT setup for something like this to happen with high totals. One thing is off and POOF it can evaporate. Obviously, this isn't going to go the way we were hoping in Tulsa, but I'm trying to adjust my perspective and just enjoy this for what it is Models are still suggesting it picks up, so we will see. I know there is a band developing NE of OKC that would be in-line with moving over Tulsa. If we can still squeeze 3 ish inches out of this, I'll be happy.

Tulsa radar is beginning to increase in coverage.

I'm not sounding the alarms yet in Tulsa. This precip can fill in quickly on radar. Now, if it's 1PM at still not impressive, then I'll start to moan and groan.

We officially have a mix of sleet and snow in Broken Arrow.

Yeah, they are a FANTASTIC employer, but that is my one complaint. I get the idea, the gas stations stay open 24/7, 365, rain, sleet or snow, so they want corporate to be held to the same standard to support them, but like....there has to be a point you draw a line in the sand for events like this. Even if they tell me in a few hours that I can go home, by then it'll be so bad, I don't know that I want to do that. I'll be half tempted to spend the night here. I would for sure if I didn't have a wife and 2 kids back at the house...

I just drove into work(I work for QT Corporate and they don't close for ANYTHING), it was sleeting with occassional flurries mixed in up in Owasso, by the time I got into Tulsa/Broken Arrow, it was all freezing rain and the roads were deteriorating fast. I am fully prepared to spend the night at work if I have to.

We are now casting!! Some freezing drizzle this morning in Tulsa, but not a ton yet. The calm before the storm. Was kind of hoping for some earlier ice accumulations to prevent people from coming to work today. Now everyone is going to scramble in a few hours to get home as things turn bad fast. TSA upped Tulsa’s snowfall totals as well. Last I saw, calling for 7.5 inches in downtown. 9-12 at my house!

WHAT A BUST! XD

TSA's graphics updating to include higher amounts.

Latest RDPS. There is a definite trend here. The HHR, NAM & RDPS are all signialing the same solution. A southern shift of the heavy band into our area.

Both high and low res NAM

HRRR just went south like JoMo said. Interestingly, this is also with a few hours of sleet and freezing rain in the morning before the full transition to snow around 1:00PM. This run is in the same camp as the Canadian and the ICON favoring the heavy band to move south. So currently we have NAM & EURO VS ICON, Canadian & HRRR. With the GFS somewhere in between.

Here is our 12Z Euro. Definitely a southern shifts on the beefier amounts, which is great.

I will say, that is looking like blizzard criteria on the GFS around 3:00PM in Tulsa and points north.

The NAM has been downright disrespectful with this storm. Other than being all over the place, it really exaggerates the have and have-nots. If you aren't in that heavy band, it's fairly lackluster. I'll continue to throw it out until we get within the range of the hourly HRRR and then see what we are looking at.

12Z GFS There's still 2 camps right now on the REALLY heavy band. A few have it here like GFS, and a few have it go from Tulsa to Fayetteville. There's 2 distinct cutoffs. The heavy band to the moderate band and then the moderate to practically nothing. I'm inclined to side with the GFS and Euro(much to my dismay) which keeps the really heavy band just to our north, as opposed to the Candian and ICON which slams us. I'll eagerly await the noon Euro. At the end of the day, models can only do so much. Trying to figure out where the heavy band will set up down to the very mile marker, just isn't reasonable. 20 miles is the difference between 5 inches and 11 on here, and that's impossible to predict.

12Z RDPS Canadian(Kuchera) 12Z ICON(10:1) 12Z NAM(Kuchera) 12Z HRRR

Here are what all the 0Z runs give downtown Tulsa in Kuchera amounts... GFS: 8.0 Inches Canadian: 11 inches ICON: 15 inches EURO: 5 inches (The 18Z run was also 5 inches). Suffice it to say, other than the EURO and the high res NAM, everything else is looking great.

Yeah but I’m not buying that huge area of freezing rain with a nearly stationary boundary. NAM is starting to come in and already looking like that sleet line is further south. That’s good news!

06Z Euro.

GFS doesn't give Tulsa sleet from 9AM to 5PM this run. All snow. Great trend. Now if only that really heavy band could sink south by about ~30 miles.

ICON RDPS