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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    The mid-week event is the system to monitor closely - the 540 line is east and south of us already before precip arrives - just have to get the track to go far enough south and east of us too - and get some dynamics working
  2. NEG NAO
  3. NEG NAO
    There is a chance the AO starts crashing towards neutral around mid month
  4. NEG NAO
    banter thread please
  5. NEG NAO
    Look whats coming down the pike right after that
  6. NEG NAO
    2018 2016 2015 2014 2011 - not bad for 1 decade
  7. NEG NAO
  8. NEG NAO
    Agreed my thinking looking at all the model runs going through mid January and the indicies - its going to be a January filled with transient shots of cold enough air for snow - BUT the trough position is key because it does look like a pattern with storms cutting to our west with milder air before dragging in the next cold front.
  9. NEG NAO
  10. NEG NAO
    Do you have a list of January snowfall totals when the avg temp was around 2.4 above normal ?
  11. NEG NAO
    MJO is just 1 part of the equation
  12. NEG NAO
    we have already started warming
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
  15. NEG NAO
    in 1978 late January February MJO was in phase 4-5 during those snowstorms - as noted by JB today in his Saturday Summary
  16. NEG NAO
    (seems like I am the only one around here who knows how to cut and paste images)
  17. NEG NAO
  18. NEG NAO
    The 1st full week of January looks to be cold enough for snow with plenty of potential for snow on the 12Z GFS
  19. NEG NAO
    you can't trust him anymore because when he made his video canceling winter the rest of the way he backed himself into a corner - also I can't understand why anyone would pay money for his forecasts and insight when there are so many free and better forecasters out there...………...
  20. NEG NAO
    this is upside down compared to the 12Z NAM and 12Z ICON which has all the heavier amounts in southern NJ
  21. NEG NAO
    I just re - discovered the vendor thread so we can get all the conversations about what the paid vendors are talking about out of the main threads ………….lets see how many can follow directions around here
  22. NEG NAO
    Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago More Feel GFS feedback problem is jumping storm out to sea too much IMO, Almost every major NYC storm in past 25 years has been out to sea on the GFS 4 days before. Maybe this is GFS coup, but the feedback fairy likely causing problems, so expect model to correct west
  23. NEG NAO
    NY NJ PA Weather‏Verified account @nynjpaweather 3h3 hours ago More A potential winter storm is brewing for next weekend with heavy snow a threat for Saturday into Sunday morning. Details on the way! https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  24. NEG NAO
    These models have been playing catch - up for a while the actual result for December will show the central and east as a wide chunk of real estate below to well below normal as the blocking takes hold in an almost perfect position for a few weeks at least - this cold outbreak could rival 2013 - 2010 and 1989....
  25. NEG NAO
    I fell off the potty.............
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