NEG NAO

after reviewing the 12Z models so far - it looks like a toxic mix for us next week at least .............

This is extreme - this pattern will continue to deliver colder and colder air as we get into mid month if this is even right - 540 line all the way down into south FLA. Also an active storm track of both Miller A's and B's - chances are one of those SHOULD deliver for us IMO.

Going to be very difficult to determine how much snowfall we might get this winter if the La Nina is moderate since there have been only 4 moderate La Nina's since 1950. And 2 of them were complete opposites - 2011-12 with a total of 7.4 inches of snow at the park and 1995 -96 with the most snow on record with 75.6 inches. The other 2 are much different also 1955-56 had 33.5 and 1970-71 had 15.5. So in other words since a moderate La Nina hasn't happened very often its going to be difficult using it to try and determine total snowfall.....

Need to move this storm further east for most of the NYC metro to have any chance of a snow and or rain to snow scenario - at least with the 0Z Canadian which I posted earlier the storm was just off the coast and the 850's were below 32 but was still rain here - during the first week in December we need cold enough air already in place at all levels before the storm arrives and also a close to perfect storm track which keeps the onshore winds from developing because the water temps are still quite warm - (most of us know this already )the 06Z GFS op is good for central and western PA - like you said still 9-10 days out so the setup can change and the models have been all over the place so far with no definite solution.

Storm potential next weekend 4th through 6th according to 0Z CMC - 850's cold enough BUT storm is too intense too close to coast and sst's too warm because its early in the season

Keep in mind that there is only one other winter since 1950 that a SL winter followed a WE winter and that year is 2007 -08 and there have only been 7 SL's since 1950 thats only 10 % of the winters since 1950. A very small sample size which means making any assumptions about what might happen this year is very risky. Also keep in mind that 2010 - 2011 winter was a SL winter and NYC recorded 61 inches of snow that winter ...........

Next weekends storm has some potential if this is even "real" at 228 hours

you are predicting 20 inches Dec 26-27 ? can you move it up 2 days ???

GEM has backed off on snow along the coast unless you are in Georgia, South Carolina or Florida

its not looking like a strong lakes cutter - the 12Z GFS wants it to stall and spin around the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for a few days - could be interesting.....

Unlikely BUT not impossible

along the eastern seaboard going to be difficult to snow as of now early in December.....the way the trough sets up at first favors Ohio Valley and Midwest.. alo

0Z Ukie

at this range you want the GFS to be the furthest east just showing its bias ……..CMC has been the most consistent with the storm- this is a classic Miller A

I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted.............

southeast ridge will be moving away end of month and EPO goes Negative --chances are increasing for a favorable period last few days of month into 1st week of March -BUT we have been fooled before

why has the mid - long range thread turned into the banter thread with all the baseball posts ?

this winter fits in perfectly with NYC climatology - it is normal to have a wide range of total snowfall amounts for any given year as evidenced here: https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

you can't trust him anymore because when he made his video canceling winter the rest of the way he backed himself into a corner - also I can't understand why anyone would pay money for his forecasts and insight when there are so many free and better forecasters out there...………...

this is upside down compared to the 12Z NAM and 12Z ICON which has all the heavier amounts in southern NJ

I just re - discovered the vendor thread so we can get all the conversations about what the paid vendors are talking about out of the main threads ………….lets see how many can follow directions around here

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago More Feel GFS feedback problem is jumping storm out to sea too much IMO, Almost every major NYC storm in past 25 years has been out to sea on the GFS 4 days before. Maybe this is GFS coup, but the feedback fairy likely causing problems, so expect model to correct west

NY NJ PA Weather‏Verified account @nynjpaweather 3h3 hours ago More A potential winter storm is brewing for next weekend with heavy snow a threat for Saturday into Sunday morning. Details on the way! https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

These models have been playing catch - up for a while the actual result for December will show the central and east as a wide chunk of real estate below to well below normal as the blocking takes hold in an almost perfect position for a few weeks at least - this cold outbreak could rival 2013 - 2010 and 1989....