NEG NAO
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Also difference in timing of second later weekend wave CMC Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits in fact GFS says snow here earlier later in weekend and CMC is later then GFS with liquid ICON has 3 events into early next week - first is liquid the next 2 frozen Like Walt mentioned earlier individual model solutions will continue to change next few days -
Then you have the ICON which has a stronger LP that cuts into Northern New England from the midwest Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather
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this is still a system to monitor because if the colder air sets up further south and the storm is blocked as suggested by the Canadian especially with a little more moisture there still is potential for a light to moderate event near the metro - also as Walt mentioned a clipper type system need to be monitored later in the weekend which could give us snow
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Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather
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But then the LP hits the block and is forced south with little dynamic support or moisture and then moves offshore on the GFS with little frozen here Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather
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any idea when the Euro's will correct south ?
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Agree with Walt - plus the GFS is showing some consistency and looks reasonable but the controlling factor is how the HP is positioned - timing of it moving into a favorable position and the strength - track and timing of LP - this is a thread the needle deal IMO https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025012706&fh=126
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Euro is north still as HP in Canada not moving southeast fast enough to block storm Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather But then the HP pushes southeast and the storm moves offshore and this event is over by early Saturday Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather Also Feb looks to start with normal temps and then the middle of the first week we are back to lows in single digits and teens Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
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Because the HP in southeast Canada is moving faster to the southeast then previous runs but still steady precip makes it into LI and Central NJ Models: GEFS — Pivotal Weather
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0Z Icon is way north - the reason being is the HP in Canada is way west still the HP is the controlling factor here Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather
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The Euro's and the ensembles should be interesting - but we are still over 5 days away
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Canadian suppresses storm - actually this is a good signal this far out IMO Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather
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Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather Because HP moving faster to the southeast blocking storm
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this comes down to the positioning and strength of the cold HP to the north - impossible to predict this far out
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next weekends event still shows up on the 12Z GFS - forget about above avg temps to start the month
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The 06 GFS was a weenies dream run - any bets on how the 12Z will compare ?
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you must agree with the EURO AI warmer solution - the GFS shows a snow/Ice threat here next weekend - no above normal temps plus Walt seems to also believe the GFS solution - he started a winter storm thread for next weekend
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No January thaw this year .............
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The 0Z Euro only has 1 above normal temp day the first week or 7 days of Feb, the above normal temps stay below the Mason Dixon line for the most part as the arctic air is close by to the north - individual storm chances to be determined - too far out for those details....
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This is warm ?
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Good Luck getting the temperature 2 degrees above avg this winter in Feb.........I agree with your precip totals maybe 3- 4 inches though but temps closer to normal
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considering how cold January has been and avg temps in February usually rise - it won't be difficult for it to be warmer - timing of storms in cold or warm periods is impossible to predict in advance.....
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thats why I said its a BIG IF - but on the other hand extreme events seem to be common these last few years so I wouldn't close the door on the possibility....
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it doesn't matter in my opinion if 2 winters temperature and snowfall patterns are similar they can be analogs for one another IMO . Plus how long have we actually been categorizing El Nino and LaNina events since record keeping began ?
