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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    if you want to take something with "a grain of salt" take that one month outlook. Also it looks like our cutter pattern might continue for awhile - will need perfect timing, placement and strength with any HP cruising by to our north to try and get another over running event similar to tomorrows light event.
  2. NEG NAO
    I think 2 - 5 for the entire metro area - covering underperforming and overperforming - high bust potential in certain areas to be determined as of tonight here is GFS looks weird with the totals
  3. NEG NAO
    its more exciting during the work week...…….last big storm on weekend was Jan 23, 2016
  4. NEG NAO
    850's on the NAM never get above 0 the entire event for areas north of central NJ and west of the Hudson - if we could keep levels lower then that the same would be all frozen or mix mostly in many areas
  5. NEG NAO
    and you were saying to ignore the +AO charts for early January - looks like there is a chance of the AO going negative soon - or should we ignore that ?
  6. NEG NAO
    use these at your own risk http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php
  7. NEG NAO
    850's well below 0 still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ?
  8. NEG NAO
    that's what happened to me last week not a drop or flake while radar showed snow overhead for hours
  9. NEG NAO
    we have had a + NAO since December 1st - getting kind of long in the tooth - odds favor a change to negative soon...…
  10. NEG NAO
    and + NAO - no blocking allowing the cold air to escape and no chance for a redevelopment of the storm to the south
  11. NEG NAO
    agreed -even though temps start out well below freezing Saturday morning - they will rise quickly to freezing then above in the city and immediate NYC metro by the time the precip starts - seen this play out like this many times before - and then you have to worry about virga at the start - surprised if NYC immediate metro gets more then a coating to an inch out of this - if that. Poor storm track well to the north and a + NAO to blame.
  12. NEG NAO
    all models are obviously showing the above average water temps and the position of the HP is shifting east with a more onshore flow - inland away from the coast amounts increase significantly
  13. NEG NAO
    here is the NAM but still not in its more accurate range of 60 Hours
  14. NEG NAO
    not in the city by the time precip arrives temps will be close to or above freezing - the further west of the Hudson River you go the better the chance of 2 - 4,,,,,,,,,IMO
  15. NEG NAO
  16. NEG NAO
    I don't have access to 6Z - thought you have WeatherBell ? Don't they have 6Z ? Just don't post it here they are copyright protected.
  17. NEG NAO
  18. NEG NAO
    The GFS has been the most consistent of all the models for several days now one run after another - not impossible in mid- January with a strong high in front of it slow to leave the area- it also has shifted the higher totals south across southern inland NJ this run
  19. NEG NAO
    GFS staying consistent
  20. NEG NAO
    Also keeps the 850's for this weekends storm cold enough
  21. NEG NAO
    another reason to keep an open mind - until that stubborn southeast ridge breaks down will be one cutter after another even when it gets colder at least through the end of the month as shown in the longer range on the GFS 12Z - NAO looks to stay positive- AO still stays positive
  22. NEG NAO
    I would keep an open mind regarding accumulations - that HP to the north is controlling the whole show if a 50/50 develops in front of it the storm could redevelop to the south as demonstrated by yesterdays CMC
  23. NEG NAO
  24. NEG NAO
    Nice article but we don't live in southeastern NE - any article relating to Northern Mid-Atlantic snowstorms ?
  25. NEG NAO
    taking into consideration all of what falls will be washed away by the changeover to rain ?
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