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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. I doubt next weekends storm is going to be a cutter
  2. the best place for the MJO is the COD in this type of pattern if you want an east coast snowstorm...……...
  3. here is the 12Z ICON - timing is faster and weaker but still basically the same track as the GFS and CMC
  4. SUPERBOWL 2020 Blizzard ? - we have Boxing Day Blizzard - 2 President Day Blizzards - time for a Superbowl Blizzard
  5. I agree - will be more precip then currently shown on this model run with that LP in that position and strength - still not individual storm thread worthy IMO - have to see this type of solution keep repeating itself the next 2 days IMO GFS was locked into the same solution for a week prior to last weekends event
  6. also with the Euro continuing to stay well off the coast chances are this will not cut west of us - more then likely a close to Benchmark track BUT that positioning of HP to the north with the cold enough air flowing in is the key ingredient...……..a negative NAO would help quite a bit to keep HP with the cold air from escaping too fast
  7. also with the Euro continuing to stay well off the coast chances are this will not cut west of us - more then likely a close to Benchmark track BUT that positioning of HP to the north with the cold enough air flowing in is the key ingredient...……..a negative NAO would help quite a bit to keep HP with the cold air from escaping too fast
  8. WPC has precip here next weekend at least
  9. as I posted in the mid and long range forum a few minutes ago - models all over the place for next weekends potential coastal - each run of each model is different.Typical of a pattern change approaching.
  10. To continue on - since everyone's sleeping the 0Z Canadian has a 3rd option - the syem with the colder air is racing across the upper Midwest and forces the coastal LP too far off shore
  11. 06Z GFS - Benchmark track where in most winters at the very beginning of Feb would be a MECS at least with cold air in the vicinity BUT this winter ? Anyone's guess
  12. last nights 0Z EURO was a complete miss to the right - models really struggling with the upcoming pattern change - while 0Z GFS is inland of the coast and all rain here
  13. Lets stop arguing and listen to MT. Holly : SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH (POSSIBLY TAKING THE FORM OF A COASTAL LOW) NEXT WEEKEND BUT DETAILS REGARDING THE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. LEFT POPS IN THE CHC.RANGE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.
  14. good if it was a big hit this far out it probably wouldn't verify
  15. WPC has next weekends coastal with a HP in a favorable position to the north
  16. NAO is forecasted to go slightly negative the end of next week - strong high pressure will be locked in to the northeast prior to the Feb 1 storm how this affects next weekends coastal still has to be determined
  17. Once again a strong HP is in place for days prior to the storm then as the storm approaches it escapes and the heaviest snow is inland - this solution has a reasonable chance of verifying IMO and its only a week away
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