NEG NAO

this "event" looks more likely now IMO BUT looks like a mix of precip types at best at the coast - more frozen the farther inland you go where there is precip available

really please explain

12Z Ukie is in a good position but only 997 then deepens to 985 but precip is not making it past the coast

the 12Z moves slightly west

agree - this will be useful down the road

UKIE to warm

0Z CMC still east

I doubt it shifts east again - I would think its going to be either side 50 -75 miles of where it is now and lock into that solution by late Wednesday when all the key players are onshore out west for better sampling …………..

going to be interesting how the EURO reacts to whatever data is injected into it over the next couple of hours...…….

need it below 985 in that green circle a weaker system wont be dynamic enough to create enough cold air to bring down to the lower layers - 850's are adequate - also it can snow if the surface is a couple degrees above 32 and accumulate if the intensity is strong enough has happened before.....

this outcome would fit perfectly into this season

I agree - I think an 18 Z GFS track is as close to the coast as we want it with faster intensification - would be favorable for more frozen heavier precip 850s are reasonable

I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now my guess this is a mix of every precip type across the area

I think it will get close enough for precip but in order for it to be mainly frozen it has to be a dynamic system

Thanks for your support !

did I say it was similar ? I was responding to the poster who said "Miller A’s are exceedingly difficult to track this far out".

UKMET NOW ON PIVITOL WEATHER: Doesn't look that bad

not totally yet

exactly - this track is perfect for us on FEB 1st- 2nd too ! With cold enough air in the vicinity !

I am just concentrating on the track of the LP - if you are trying to figure out boundary layers and trying to be specific about precip types this far out - good luck with that !

12Z EPS 850s are fine throughout next weekend

From Mt. Holly afternoon AFD: THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DISCREPANCY LOOKS TO BEGIN THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS OPENS THIS LOW UP AND PULLS IT EAST FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAT ABSORBS THE ENERGY AND TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW HEADING TOWARDS BERMUDA. THE CMC CURRENTLY FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. MODEL PREDICTABILITY LOOKS LOW HERE THOUGH AND HAVE KEPT POPS CHANCE AT BEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. Upton AFD: BY NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TROUGH, AND THUS DEPTH OF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS REMAIN UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND, WITH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION LOW AT THIS TIME.

and just west of there much less - plus this output this far out is not worth anything especially on that model. a borderline airmass can still produce snow this time of year - its still way to early to get into specific types and amounts

That's caused also because of the lack of precip less then 1/2 inch - this GFS precip map is not accurate with a 983 just off the coast