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NEG NAO

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  1. NEG NAO
    give examples the terrain around the metro varies - for example when I lived in Silverton Toms River a mile from the water - Northern Ocean County back in the 80's there were storms where we got an inch or less and when I drove inland 7 miles there were several inches on the ground I define the coast as only a few miles under 5 from the water down there
  2. NEG NAO
    what is your definition of "the coast" ?
  3. NEG NAO
  4. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro
  5. NEG NAO
    we have been going through and will continue to go through various trends the next few days hard to determine which way this will go........plus each 0Z and 12Z run will have updated and more accurate Radiosonde data fed into them.....
  6. NEG NAO
    yes 60 hour rule and then everyone will be looking at the various Km's 3 and 12 and 32
  7. NEG NAO
    the various models are still not in agreement on the track of the storm and the strength and location of the HP to the north - EURO should be interesting in an hour or so
  8. NEG NAO
    I find this hard to believe I will get 16 inches
  9. NEG NAO
    where is the HP and the strength ?
  10. NEG NAO
    The most important players in this setup are the HP in southeast Canada and the 50/50 IMO - the HP has to be at least 1030 and stay anchored and not weaken
  11. NEG NAO
    The HP is weaker on the CMC and slightly north of the GFS 1027 vs. 1032
  12. NEG NAO
  13. NEG NAO
    0Z ICON Northeast
  14. NEG NAO
    0Z ICON
  15. NEG NAO
    huh ? That was a blizzard and was suppressed February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard - Wikipedia
  16. NEG NAO
    Going to be a heavy wet snow where it falls.......Nam is most trustworthy under 60 hours
  17. NEG NAO
  18. NEG NAO
    18Z GFS
  19. NEG NAO
    that one starts as frozen
  20. NEG NAO
    so you are taking the suppression solutions off the table ?
  21. NEG NAO
  22. NEG NAO
  23. NEG NAO
    Ensembles don't agree with the GFS OP suppression idea - good signal for now
  24. NEG NAO
    If anyone wants to too take a stroll down memory lane - check out all the confusion 2 days before the 2010 BOXING Day event - people are even discussing individual model initialization errors - maybe we should start doing that again
  25. NEG NAO
    did they make this map before or after viewing the 12Z models ? regardless they apparently are discounting the suppressed solutions
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