NEG NAO

12Z unreliable 16V GFS is similar to the GFS OP the storm doesn't have enough room to develop so moves east waiting on the Canadian to finish running

not according to the 0Z Euro - like i mentioned earlier only reason I am tracking it is the Euro keeps showing it

12Z GFS still not showing the storm for early next week organizing and moving up the coast still about 5 days out though - that previous system is suppressing it on this model

as long as the EURO OP is showing this ( 2 runs in a row now) its worth tracking IMO. - but like you said needs other reliable model support. These one storm right after another are difficult for the models to accurately forecast ??

While we are waiting for the next snowstorm in the NYC Metro here is a review of snowstorms from 1953 up till the the one just a couple weeks ago: https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

18Z GFS Para misses too - all this after the 12Z EURO came on board with the storm - typical model mayhem at this range....

The event to now concentrate on is the follow up to this early weekends - early next week as the 12Z EURO has jumped on board along with Para GFS

Threat early next week is real now since EURO shows it'

Still have a lot of time for changes -Actually the 12Z GFS moved closer to the Para - GFS solution at 12Z before it moves east because the previous storm is blocking it out to sea - also on the Para it changes to snow after starting as a mix

This article states that this is going to be a strong SSW event similar to 84/85 - others have said there is a chance the vortex will split - strong and split what might happen then ? *Stratosphere warming watch* Strong signals now emerge for a disruptive stratospheric warming event in early January, possibly impacting the course of Winter (severe-weather.eu)

All by its lonesome and too warm and more then likely wrong in some way...........

and the SSW event in January 1973 did NOT lead to any significant increase in snowfall the rest of the winter as 72-73 ended up with 2.8 inches in NYC

did the 73-74 winter season have a SSW event ? IMO this advertised SSW event soon is going to be the wild card this winter - it will probably change the current storm tracks we have been experiencing and also if there is a split in the PV that just makes things more uncertain and complex.*Stratosphere warming watch* Strong signals now emerge for a disruptive stratospheric warming event in early January, possibly impacting the course of Winter (severe-weather.eu)

calculate the percentage from this: monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov)

Plenty of hints on various models of an east coast storm during the 1st week in January but its too far out for them to be consistent and accurate.............

The SSW is real the GFS is NOT !

In addition take a look at previous seasons when NYC received over 10 in. of snow in December and report back....

GEM Disagrees

where and what time ?

Post the EPO images and then you may see why............

Does this reinforce the idea of not trusting some models past a certain number of days ?? even though the AO, NAO and PNA were and still are favorable for winter weather around these parts next week BUT how about the EPO ? Can't seem to find anymore graphics to show the EPO since I heard the NWS took them away ??? Also some in the weather community were so certain that the early next week system would not be able to cut because of the block setting up and would be forced to redevelop south of us . What contributed to the system being able to cut and not redevelop ???? Or is this still a possibility at some point next week ????

yes but DT said this is the best pattern he has seen since Jan 96 and Dec 2009

Early next weeks event the 28th - 29th has a very low chance as of now for frozen precip in most of NYC metro IMO - The 31st - 1st event is the one to watch as the block is more substantial and whatever storm comes down the pike is forced south and east of NYC Metro as illustrated on the 0Z EURO OP

Agreed