NEG NAO

isn't there a vendor thread ?????? Could care less what JB or this whatever ….. has to say or any of the other for hire talking heads...….

The all time March Snowfall record in NYC was March 1896 - through Feb. NYC had a total of 12.8 inches then in March they had 30.5 inches and in April 3.0 inches ending up with much above avg. snowfall for the season - that March featured this http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomarch1896.html

southeast ridge will be moving away end of month and EPO goes Negative --chances are increasing for a favorable period last few days of month into 1st week of March -BUT we have been fooled before

No Don - Euro had this idea too

head south

Euro ENS

If you want a snowstorm according to the 12Z EURO you can head south

0Z GFS - Keeps Clowning Around

Mt. Holly Updated AFD discounts the EURO solution late week: SO WHAT COULD HAPPEN THAT ULTIMATELY INFLUENCES SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEK? WELL, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE FIRST EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF RAIN (AND PROBABLY SOME SNOW IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT). FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH SHOULD TREND SURFACE TEMPERATURES UPWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD, SO EXPECTING SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY TAME, EVEN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK THROUGH THE AREA. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE GREATEST POPS ARE SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, AIDED BY ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER, PRECIPITATION MAY NOCTURNALLY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. AS THE SECONDARY PERTURBATION MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS GENERALLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. HOW FAST THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND HOW THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION APPEAR QUITE DIFFERENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM IN EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPSTREAM KICKER, AND THIS LEADS TO A LIFTING SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A WARM/WET SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE GFS/CMC HAVE THE REVERSE APPEARANCE IN THE LARGE SCALE, LEADING TO A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING SURFACE LOW FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THE RESULT IS A COLDER SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA, WITH RAIN ON THURSDAY MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING FORECAST IS COLDER (GIVEN A FAIRLY DECENT MODEL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION) BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TEMPERATURES, TIMING, AND ULTIMATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. I ALSO BROADENED THE PERIOD OF POPS INTO FRIDAY FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST, THE LARGE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES ALREADY EXISTING AMONG THE MODELS SUGGEST COLLECTIVE PHASE ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE. SECOND, THE KICKER SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A SLUGGISH SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY. THUS, I DISCOUNT THE ECMWF'S RATHER DRY LOOK OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE LARGE-SCALE PHENOMENA TREND IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, AS A LARGE NUMBER OF OUTCOMES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NON-WINTER WE HAVE HAD SO FAR), BUT THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT COLDER SOLUTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEM. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

once again the upper air configuration and the HP to the north if it can build in Quebec at the right timing will determine the track of LP

WPC has some precip mid - late week

Even the 12Z is similar to GFS - GEM - GEFS trending north

Euro - UKIE somewhat similar

12Z GEFS is trending north

different then other OP 12Z models

has same general idea totals don't matter yet - lets see if suppressed EURO trends towards the others - the pattern doesn't support the suppressed idea IMO

12Z GEM onboard

3" snow on the 13th ???? here is euro for the 17th -will It be there at 12Z today ?

GEFS says NO

This is getting slightly interesting on 0Z GFS and CMC- HP cutting across Canada and strength and position of Southeast Ridge will determine track of storm

we all will in a few hours

Did the roundy plots go into MJO 8--1-2 a couple weeks ago ?

12Z Canadian looks similar to the GFS we haven't had a suppressed system with cold enough air in place so far - we need some help from that southeast ridge