NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Every model is phasing further south closer to the coast - this is a classic Miller A - starts out along the Gulf coast and makes the turn up the coast and now strong HP is in southern Canada feeding the cold air into the system and it is now within 5 days out
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12Z EPS looks better then OP
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More METS in that forum and some seasoned winter weather experts - Typhoon Tip etc.etc. - anyways ICON has no phase and a weaker system sliding offshore south of us
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Euro has the phase happening too far off shore
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Canadian still has the 993 lp phasing and close enough and snow for Northern NJ as HP builds in southern Canada - the GFS still has nothing as its cold bias is keeping the storm well out to sea GFS might correct in the coming days waiting for the EURO
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I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted.............
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Utterly ridiculous - FIX THE MODEL PLEASE !
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Do they have any plans to work on the model to correct the cold bias ?
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the other than list - I would add a few names to that - BUT I think we have enough qualified METS and other weather enthusiasts on this board to determine if March will deliver any snowstorm threats ………………..
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Next weeks Euro storm doesn't exist on the 12Z GFS but I thought I would post this nonsense for entertainment purposes ONLY !
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Not according to the Euro to start the event - and the changeover the Euro shows as the storm moves slowly offshore and changes the precip to snow as colder air is drawn in - well - good luck with that IMO.
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Lets see how long this teaser on the 6Z GFS is going to last then right behind another one
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lower right hand side - Best Guess SNOW
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Not to be critical of Don or anyone else - the above post is one reason why you have to keep all of the solutions for late next week on the table. Both the Euro and GFS were showing this weeks southern snow event almost a week ago - then they lost it -then within the last couple of days its back and will likely verify in some areas. Keep everything on the table !
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then why this ? Like I said previously the system at this strength 991 will bring the cold enough air down to the lower levels - the surface will be slightly warmer but the intensity of the snow could still cause accumulations and eventually even the surface will keep cooling that's why the EURO shows this - its probably not going to verify exactly like this though
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whats so crappy about this airmass ?
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Euro has the LP close to the GFS position BUT stronger 991vs 997 - thus more frozen
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I tend to to disagree with that with the NAO trending negative around that time
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Stacked Low if it gets strong enough could generate enough cold air to get a changeover but 997 won't do it
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so does GFS
