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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    you are predicting 20 inches Dec 26-27 ? can you move it up 2 days ???
  2. NEG NAO
    GEM has backed off on snow along the coast unless you are in Georgia, South Carolina or Florida
  3. NEG NAO
    its not looking like a strong lakes cutter - the 12Z GFS wants it to stall and spin around the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for a few days - could be interesting.....
  4. NEG NAO
    Unlikely BUT not impossible
  5. NEG NAO
    along the eastern seaboard going to be difficult to snow as of now early in December.....the way the trough sets up at first favors Ohio Valley and Midwest.. alo
  6. NEG NAO
  7. NEG NAO
  8. NEG NAO
    NAUSEATING TEASE - GFS SHOULD BE PUT ON THE SHELF - BUT IT IS STILL NWS MODEL OF CHOICE...……….
  9. NEG NAO
  10. NEG NAO
    Lets worry about getting the heavier precip in here first - that's the key- need more of a dynamic system to help draw the colder air in to the lower levels - 850's are not the issue
  11. NEG NAO
    All 3 GFS - CMC - Euro are completely different but to be fair all 3 have not performed well this winter especially past 5 days - and at times less then 5 days out....
  12. NEG NAO
    you saw the 0Z NAM
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
    we do ? bold statements require some evidence to back it up with...……... Even the long range NAM is on board BUT won't be entering its more accurate range for another 24 hours
  15. NEG NAO
    about half of the members have a significant hit - so 50 - 50 chance right now on the Euro still being 4+ days out - jury is still out...…….
  16. NEG NAO
    with a large precip field as both lows merge
  17. NEG NAO
    luckily they miss just east and we don't want to be in the bulls eye at this range...…..plus some still have us getting some precip
  18. NEG NAO
    anybody have the list of top analogs for this coming event ? The Dec 24 -26th 2002 event - the second half of it comes to mind when 2 separate systems bombed off the coast changing rain to snow http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html
  19. NEG NAO
    clown map at this range
  20. NEG NAO
    don't need a frigid airmass look at soundings ignore the various precip colors on OP maps
  21. NEG NAO
    Best Guess for northern NJ -SNOW according to soundings on CMC
  22. NEG NAO
    0Z Ukie
  23. NEG NAO
    Ukie on board
  24. NEG NAO
    at this range you want the GFS to be the furthest east just showing its bias ……..CMC has been the most consistent with the storm- this is a classic Miller A
  25. NEG NAO
    snowstorm for eastern half of NJ and points east - CMC has been the most consistent with this storm several runs in a row But GFS and EPS trending towards it
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