NEG NAO

Central Park got 40.9 did you measure yours accurately ?

Anyone remember this one ? 17th anniversary this weekend. Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Is he a "Jersey Guy" ?

because you are under a heavy band of precip - dynamics at work .......

plus the follow up storm for the 8th is still on the table and colder air will be available - like that HP in southern Canada with some blocking

its still on the table chances are this storm won't get going till it moves north and only hits eastern maine and points north and east from 18Z NAM

If we don't get at least an event that is measurable this month that will be by accident IMO . Plenty of cold enough air available and the indicies are mostly favorable going forward and an active southern stream coming in our direction - the cold enough air at all levels and the southern moisture will eventually phase together in NYC metro most models have shown runs in recent days suggesting this after this week.....

Hope you are wrong............. Hoping for this:

it would have a better chance if it was later in the season BUT I agree with Anthony too close to the coast and the flow will be off the too warm ocean - need to move it east to have a chance and that if cold enough air is in place prior

You are discounting the 0Z EURO solution for this weekend ?

Looks good on those GFS ENS long rang charts now that you posted at 324 hours but what will actually verify could be different. With this pattern change in progress it is now becoming difficult to even predict what is going to happen at the surface this coming weekend as the EURO and the GFS are completely at odds with one another within 5 days

The 0Z CMC adds another possible scenario later this week - the system crossing the south later in the week stays south - colder air is drawn into the area and then another storm develops along the coast for early next week and the results are below !

0Z Euro can't decide what to do with next weekends coastal storm now very far south of us - yesterdays 12Z had it inland close to the area and run before that was also too far south and east

Good call Walt - 12Z Euro brought back next weekends storm

Euro stays so far south and east its basically no precip

The 0Z Euro says the 2nd low stays stays south of us and off the coast and the 06Z GFS has shifted south and east also

Can you expand on this ? Nothing showing up yet in guidance so far that would indicate any significant snow in the metro ..........

after reviewing the 12Z models so far - it looks like a toxic mix for us next week at least .............

This is extreme - this pattern will continue to deliver colder and colder air as we get into mid month if this is even right - 540 line all the way down into south FLA. Also an active storm track of both Miller A's and B's - chances are one of those SHOULD deliver for us IMO.

Going to be very difficult to determine how much snowfall we might get this winter if the La Nina is moderate since there have been only 4 moderate La Nina's since 1950. And 2 of them were complete opposites - 2011-12 with a total of 7.4 inches of snow at the park and 1995 -96 with the most snow on record with 75.6 inches. The other 2 are much different also 1955-56 had 33.5 and 1970-71 had 15.5. So in other words since a moderate La Nina hasn't happened very often its going to be difficult using it to try and determine total snowfall.....

Need to move this storm further east for most of the NYC metro to have any chance of a snow and or rain to snow scenario - at least with the 0Z Canadian which I posted earlier the storm was just off the coast and the 850's were below 32 but was still rain here - during the first week in December we need cold enough air already in place at all levels before the storm arrives and also a close to perfect storm track which keeps the onshore winds from developing because the water temps are still quite warm - (most of us know this already )the 06Z GFS op is good for central and western PA - like you said still 9-10 days out so the setup can change and the models have been all over the place so far with no definite solution.

Storm potential next weekend 4th through 6th according to 0Z CMC - 850's cold enough BUT storm is too intense too close to coast and sst's too warm because its early in the season

Keep in mind that there is only one other winter since 1950 that a SL winter followed a WE winter and that year is 2007 -08 and there have only been 7 SL's since 1950 thats only 10 % of the winters since 1950. A very small sample size which means making any assumptions about what might happen this year is very risky. Also keep in mind that 2010 - 2011 winter was a SL winter and NYC recorded 61 inches of snow that winter ...........

Next weekends storm has some potential if this is even "real" at 228 hours