NEG NAO

Usually we waited in the past to start Snowstorm topic till the evidence is overwhelming that there was a very good possibility but this event is still uncertain IMO EURO OP IS TOO WARM BUT EPS seems to be colder would be better if there was cold air in place before the storm arrives

hopefully gone for the rest of the winter.........

GFS is out to lunch IMO - look what it just cooked up for a few days later:

how many members ?

Until the EURO stops the LP from cutting nothing to crow about yet:

Yes you can see the snow falling in northern Ocean County on a few of these cams in Lakewood area 511nj.org

There is quite a bit of Precip on radar to the south and west of NYC BUT how much is actually reaching the ground ? RWR from KPHI (cod.edu) POMONA MOCLDY 31 26 82 CALM 30.23F WILDWOOD* MOCLDY 33 31 92 CALM 30.23F MILLVILLE CLOUDY 32 29 88 SE3 30.21F WRIGHTSTOWN MOCLDY 29 24 82 CALM 30.22S MOUNT HOLLY CLOUDY 30 25 81 CALM 30.22F TRENTON CLOUDY 27 20 75 E3 30.21S NJZ001>014-201400- NORTHERN NEW JERSEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS SUSSEX CLOUDY 23 18 81 SW3 30.19R ANDOVER* N/A 25 19 78 CALM 30.19R MORRISTOWN MOCLDY 28 23 80 CALM 30.24R NEWARK CLOUDY 30 20 66 S5 30.25R WCI 25 TETERBORO MOCLDY 30 21 69 CALM 30.23S CALDWELL MOCLDY 29 18 63 CALM 30.24R SOMERVILLE MOCLDY 26 20 77 CALM 30.22R ALLAIRE* CLOUDY 30 21 69 CALM 30.24R TOMS RIVER* CLOUDY 29 23 78 CALM 30.25S PAZ043-044-047-054-055-060>062-066>071-201400- EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PHILADELPHIA CLOUDY 32 25 75 E5 30.21F WCI 27 NORTH PHILA CLOUDY 31 24 75 E5 30.22F WCI 26 BLUE BELL* CLOUDY 28 24 85 NE3 30.20F DOYLESTOWN CLOUDY 29 19 66 CALM 30.20S QUAKERTOWN* CLOUDY 27 21 80 CALM 30.19F PERKASIE* CLOUDY 27 23 86 CALM 30.19F POTTSTOWN CLOUDY 25 20 81 NE5 30.21F WCI 19 LANCASTER CLOUDY 29 22 75 E7 30.15F WCI 22 COATESVILLE MOCLDY 28 25 86 CALM 30.18S WEST CHESTER FAIR 30 27 86 CALM 30.19S READING MOCLDY 26 20 77 CALM 30.16F ALLENTOWN CLOUDY 25 18 74 NE5 30.20R WCI 19 QN CITY/ALNTWN CLOUDY 28 21 74 CALM 30.21F MOUNT POCONO CLOUDY 25 23 92 S7 30.08F WCI 17 HAZLETON CLOUDY 28 23 80 SE5 30.12S WCI 23 LEHIGHTON CLOUDY 25 21 86 CALM 30.20S WILKES BARRE MOCLDY 26 20 77 CALM 30.12S DEZALL-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-201400- DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS WILMINGTON CLOUDY 33 27 78 SE7 30.21F WCI 27 DOVER LGT RAIN 35 29 80 S6 30.21S WCI 30 CHESWOLD CLOUDY 36 30 80 S3 30.21S GEORGETOWN MOCLDY 34 30 85 CALM 30.22S EASTON LGT RAIN 36 34 93 E5 30.22F WCI 32 STEVENSVILLE LGT RAIN 37 37 100 MISG 30.19F ABERDEEN MOCLDY 33 29 86 CALM 30.19F PATUXENT CLOUDY 41 33 73 S5 30.20R OCEAN CITY MOCLDY 34 32 92 CALM 30.22S WALLOPS ISLAND MOCLDY 35 34 96 NW6 30.23R WCI 30 CAMBRIDGE MOCLDY 37 34 87 S5 30.22R WCI 34 SALISBURY MOCLDY 33 30 88 S3 30.22R PAZ001-021-NYZ056-072-MDZ011-DCZ001-201400- OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS HARRISBURG CLOUDY 28 22 78 CALM 30.15F STATE COLLEGE LGT SNOW 23 21 93 CALM 30.05F WILLIAMSPORT CLOUDY 24 19 81 E6 30.09F HAZE WCI 17 BINGHAMTON CLOUDY 23 19 85 SE7 30.02F WCI 15 NEW YORK CITY MOCLDY 33 19 56 CALM 30.24S BALTIMORE CLOUDY 36 30 79 VRB3 30.16F WASHINGTON DC CLOUDY 38 32 79 S5 30.18F WCI 34

need everything to line up next - 50/50 low - strong HP in southern Canada and an active storm track...……….

12Z CMC is further south then 12 Z NAM with precip but doesn't look to be all frozen so IMO this event is not thread worthy YET

Since nobody has been talking about the MJO lately here it is - mainly staying close to the COD which is a good thing in this pattern with all the other indicies mostly favorable for cold and snow in the east next few weeks http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

12Z NAM is mainly a New York State/Northern PA and points east of there event maybe Northwest NJ

I think the 95/96 La Nina is the closest analog to this winter so far and early January has a lot of potential as it did in 1996 after a above average snowfall in December 1995 BUT its only potential as of now

This reminds me of last Monday when the NAM overdid snow accumulations in the area.........

From Mount Holly Latest AFD : Thursday Into Friday Rains Will Likely Change To Snow and Some Snow Accumulations Possible

The 6Z GFS looks very interesting for next Friday as a wave is developing along the front on next Thursday and then rides up along the front through Friday - this is all about timing IMO and the exact location of the front and cold enough air as the wave rides up along the front - according to this it is a complex situation still a week away it is beginning to remind me of Christmas 2002 when rain developed earlier and then changed to snow across the region as the day wore on and by night several inches were on the ground

no strong high to north and no 50/50 no cold air in place before storm arrives especially south and coast coast hugger and coastal rain

need the 540 line further east its hanging back in Central PA and Central NE - need more of a faster phase

rain showers coast snow showers inland on this run

Don - I think you may want to reconsider your prediction of "likely below normal snowfall" as far as I can see only 2 times since the beginning of record keeping at Central Park when they recorded at least 10 inches of snow in December they had below normal seasonal snowfall - most of the time when they had at least 10 inches of snow in December they recorded above normal snowfall for the season with some years around normal.............

yes for the last 10 years on here start reading this: and before that on EasternWeather NYC/PHL: December 24-27th Potential - New York City Metro - American Weather (americanwx.com)

I would like to know Walt's opinion of all this depressing throwing in the towel talk going on here.........

good luck if you are using this to determine that and why lesser amounts in western NJ and eastern PA then eastern NJ ???- clown map IMO

Supposed to be 50 % max capacity in New York - also too many people here are hanging their hats on one model run but others are not which is the way to go about this IMO. Also take into consideration how much moisture will be wasted in virga at the start and also IMO there are going to be a few surprises during this storm many storms like this one do especially the first one of the season - remember what happened during the November 2018 storm ?

and the 4 foot drifts is the other half of the fun and eventually that will happen....