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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    yes as I mentioned earlier have to keep an open mind this far in advance and Dr. No might come along after midnight and spoil the party like a couple of days ago - and in another day or so the early mesoscale model crowd will join the discussion.....
  2. NEG NAO
    yes and to think 12 hours ago some including PT and snowman19 were talking NW trends and mostly liquid ........and then that funky looking 12Z EURO
  3. NEG NAO
    Like I said previously - its obvious there were initialization errors and not all data was fed into it
  4. NEG NAO
    I bet the 0Z EURO tonight looks different
  5. NEG NAO
    I think there were initialization errors in this run doesn't seem organized like the other models and the 0Z EURO
  6. NEG NAO
    still tucked into the coast a few hours later ?
  7. NEG NAO
    and it also means this matches the model run IMO
  8. NEG NAO
    you have to keep an open mind 4 days out IMO
  9. NEG NAO
    exactly
  10. NEG NAO
    I think making absolute statements 4 days out looks wrong....
  11. NEG NAO
    huh ? compare the Canadian with the GFS at 12Z
  12. NEG NAO
    explain why please ?
  13. NEG NAO
    then why does CMC show this ?
  14. NEG NAO
  15. NEG NAO
    12Z CMC storm is stronger then GFS and HP to the north is still there
  16. NEG NAO
    The problem on the GFS is the HP is not staying in place allowing the storm to move more north then out to sea
  17. NEG NAO
    GFS not that different then ICON
  18. NEG NAO
    yes and as the storm starts pulling away from the coast the rain/snow line moves into central and south jersey also the NE wind that does not come over the warmer water keeps those areas frozen
  19. NEG NAO
    12Z ICON with the classic Raritan River NJ snow/rain line
  20. NEG NAO
    except the models ? last night the GFS and Euro and their ENSEMBLES had 6 inches plus and Henry M. has 12 -18 for parts of Northern NJ all the way into my area
  21. NEG NAO
    Northern Middlesex yes - Middlesex County is large and extends well south into central NJ
  22. NEG NAO
    better hope its at least 4 anything under 2 inches will have some folks here saying this is a continuation of last years pattern
  23. NEG NAO
    yes and in NJ there are natural boundaries such as the Raritan River in Northern Middlesex County and this storm has shown model outputs from various models showing that area as the rain snow line
  24. NEG NAO
    give examples the terrain around the metro varies - for example when I lived in Silverton Toms River a mile from the water - Northern Ocean County back in the 80's there were storms where we got an inch or less and when I drove inland 7 miles there were several inches on the ground I define the coast as only a few miles under 5 from the water down there
  25. NEG NAO
    what is your definition of "the coast" ?
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